The African continent was and continues to be an important source of global needs, not only for food, but also for various oil, gas, and mineral resources, as well as human resources on which various countries around the world rely for labor. This explains the extent of global competition for a presence in African countries and the extension of dominance over their potentialities, whether directly as during European colonialism or indirectly after decolonization through the use of political, economic, and military mechanisms to ensure the continuation of this presence.
As a result, when the world is in crisis, attention is drawn to the brown continent, which can be described as the global stockpile that meets the growing needs of all humanity, emphasizing the continent's position and role in managing many international issues, economically and politically, even if there is a crisis in the extent to which the peoples of the continent perceive this position in the past, making it an open arena for domination and exploitation. However, the African continent's younger generations have become aware of this situation and are fighting for their people's right to benefit from the returns on their wealth and capacities.
Therefore, it was unsurprising that global attention in general, and European attention in particular, was directed towards the African continent to present the appropriate alternative to fill the gap in European needs for energy in general, and gas in particular, with the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. European Union countries sought to avoid harming their economies by looking forward to solutions to replace their Neolithic energy sources.
According to 2017 estimates, the African continent has proven gas reserves totaling 148.6 trillion cubic meters, accounting for more than 7% of global gas reserves. In 2019, the European Union imported approximately 108 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas from African countries.
This was demonstrated by Francesco Galietti, head of the Rome-based center for consulting services, Policy Sonar, who stated that "the African continent is ready to fill the vacuum of Russian oil and gas in Europe, and that European leaders' goal is to end their dependence on Russia." According to the draught EU Energy Strategy document published in early May, "Russian oil and gas before 2030 may lead to new gains in the liquefied natural gas market for Nigeria, Angola, Libya, and Algeria (2022)”.
"The European Union countries sought to intensify cooperation with African countries to help replace imports of Russian natural gas, as African countries, particularly in the western part of the continent, such Nigeria, Senegal, and Angola, have largely untapped LNG resources," it indicated.
Given the foregoing, a question arises respecting African gas's ability to meet the needs of the European energy market in the short and medium term. Could Africa be an alternative to Russian gas in meeting the demands of European markets, which are expected to increase this winter?
Two major points can be made in response to this question:
FIRST: AFRICA- A PROMISING MARKET FOR NATURAL GAS
The 55 African countries have natural gas reserves estimated at 634 trillion cubic feet, making them a suitable alternative to meet the needs of European countries, not only to replace Russian gas, but possibly as an alternative to other sources of gas. This is reinforced by a geographical proximity, particularly with regard to North and West African countries, which puts them in a preferential position to meet these needs, as well as Africa's possession of pipelines connected to the European gas network. African exports pass through Algeria to Spain and Libya to Italy. Ten important countries can be mentioned by taking a quick look at the continent's most prominent gas producing and exporting countries, which are:
1- NIGERIA
According to the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), Nigeria has proven gas reserves of 206.53 trillion cubic feet, making it the continent's largest natural gas reserves.
2- ALGERIA
Algeria ranks eleventh in the world and second in Africa in terms of proven natural gas reserves, accounting for nearly 2% of total global gas reserves. Algeria is Africa's largest country and the world's sixth largest gas exporter.
3- MOZAMBIQUE
It has nearly 100 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, accounting for about 1% of the global total. These reserves can meet 1,545 times their annual consumption, implying that they have 1,500 years of gas left.
4- EGYPT
According to the Department of International Trade's Energy Resources Guide for 2021, its proven gas reserves are estimated to be 77.2 trillion cubic feet. It is Africa's fourth-largest holder of proven natural gas reserves.
5- LIBYA
It has 53.1 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, accounting for 1% of total global natural gas reserves.
6- MAURITANIA
The Mauritanian Ministry of Petroleum, Energy, and Minerals recently announced that the quantities of natural gas discovered off the Mauritanian coast amount to 15 trillion cubic feet, covering 30 to 50 years of continuous production, and an increase in the volume of discoveries is expected to reach more than 50 trillion cubic feet of gas, which is equivalent to Africa's total production for seven years.
7- ANGOLA
Angola has proven gas reserves of 13.5 trillion cubic feet. However, because it is Africa's second largest oil producer after Nigeria, the majority of the output is burned or re-pumped into oil fields to increase oil extraction. Its economy is heavily reliant on the hydrocarbon industry, with crude oil driving economic growth and accounting for one-third of its GDP and more than 90% of exports.
8- CONGO
It has proven natural gas reserves of 10.1 trillion cubic feet.
9- QUATORIAL GUINEA
Equatorial Guinea has proven natural gas reserves of 5 trillion cubic feet and produces nearly 300,000 million cubic feet per year, ranking 50th in the world.
10- CAMEROON
The proven reserves are estimated to be 4.8 trillion cubic feet.
SECOND- AFRICA AND THE ENERGY ALTERNATIVE TO THE RUSSIAN MARKET:
OBSTACLES AND CHALLENGES
European Union countries rushed to the African continent in search of alternatives to Russian gas, with European companies successfully concluding deals to supply African gas to African countries, similar to what the Italian company Eni S.p.A did by concluding two deals. The first is with Egypt to provide quantities of liquefied gas totaling 3 billion cubic meters in 2022. The second agreement is with Algeria to gradually increase natural gas exports by approximately 9 billion cubic meters through the Trans-Mediterranean Pipeline in 2023 and 2024, as well as two additional gas supply agreements with Congo-Brazzaville and Angola.
Despite these European efforts, the situation is not as simple as some believe. It is true that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis represented an opportunity for African countries to gain a greater share in the fossil energy market in general, and gas in particular, but seizing it remains contingent on the availability of favorable conditions. African gas exports to European countries face obstacles and challenges that make capitalizing on this opportunity limited in the short term, but its timing may be appropriate in the medium and long term if African countries succeed in overcoming those obstacles, which can be summarized in four points:
1- WEAK INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE OIL AND GAS SECTOR
According to data released by PricewaterhouseCoopers South African branch, the crisis of weak infrastructure in the oil sector resulted in a 19% decrease in oil production on the continent in 2019 compared to the previous year (2017), accounting for 7.8 percent of global output.
Moreover, gas production in Africa fell by 5% during the same time period. This necessitates the search for sources of funds to maximize infrastructure investments, which extend beyond exploration and production to include other operations such as transportation and logistics. Timber Silva, Nigeria's Minister of Petroleum Resources, stated, "We want to build a trans-Saharan gas pipeline to transport gas all the way to Algeria, and then to Europe," but he warned that "there is no spare capacity that we can provide."
2- INCREASING CONSUMER REQUIREMENTS
Some African countries have begun to implement development strategies and programs to improve their societal conditions in order to maintain their stability and meet the needs of their communities, which may result in a limitation on the volume of exports, especially given the lack of funding required to expand the volume of production to meet the needs of the export market as the world faces a crisis. The financial ramifications are exacerbated by high levels of inflation in various global economies following the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, which followed the Covid-19 crisis, the effects of which are still visible in the slow movement of global markets.
3- AGREEMENTS AND CONTRACTS REACHED WITH VARIOUS INTERNATIONAL PARTIES
Oil and gas contracts are known to be long-term contracts, making it difficult for producing countries to find space to exit from agreements reached with companies if emergency events arise due to an increase in demand for these products. There is no doubt that contracts have been concluded by African gas producing countries with many international companies, making it difficult to grant new concessions to European companies in production areas due to the presence of other global players such as Chinese, Indian, and Russian companies. This means that deals concluded with European companies will either be at high prices, putting pressure on the European economies, or will have long terms with no immediate return.
4- CONFLICTS AND WARS IN THE PRODUCTION AND EXPORT SECTORS
According to Foreign Policy magazine, some of Africa's largest production sites are located in areas with security challenges, such as Mozambique, which has the third largest natural gas reserves in Africa. However, the armed conflict in the northern province of Cabo Delgado has caused the postponement of gas projects worth $50 billion.
The same thing happened in Libya, where gas and oil fields linked to pipelines in Italy are being blocked due to the political situation and tribal conflicts. This also occurred in the Niger Delta following the country's rebellions, which had an impact on the volume of gas produced there.
In light of the foregoing, it can be stated that European countries have high ambitions to benefit from African gas and rely on it as an alternative, or at the very least to contribute to reducing European dependence on Russian gas in a way that reduces Russian pressure on European countries.
The energy research Rystad Energy Co. expects African gas production to peak at 470 billion cubic meters by late 2030, which is equivalent to 75% of Russia's expected supply this year, but these ambitions are contingent on the search for approaches capable of overcoming obstacles and challenges, which can be achieved through some proposed solutions, most notably the following:
1- Completion of the trans-Saharan gas pipeline known as "Nigal." An agreement to build it was signed in 2009, for a length of more than 4,000 km across Algeria, Niger, and Nigeria, as this pipeline is expected to deliver gas to Europe through the three countries. According to the International Energy Observatory, the volume of gas transported through this pipeline after it is completed is estimated to be 30 billion cubic meters per year. Keep in mind that this is not a new idea, but for a long time the security situation in the region, as well as tensions between Algeria and Niger, prevented the project from being completed. Algeria and Niger reopened their borders in 2021, and the gas pipeline project was restarted. This line will connect Nigeria to the existing pipelines between Europe and Algeria.
2- Completion of European projects in some African countries that were halted due to the Covid-19 pandemic, such as British company BP's Torto Ahmeim LNG project in Senegal and Mauritania. Due to the consequences of the pandemic, it was decided to postpone it until 2023.
3- Taking advantage of the African continent's hydrogen production and export capabilities, as estimates indicate that the continent's countries can produce 5 billion tons of hydrogen annually for less than two dollars per kilogram, according to the Energy Agency. It is worth noting that a number of African countries, led by Egypt, Morocco, Mauritania, Namibia, and South Africa, have plans in this area.
4- Providing the necessary funding to complete stalled projects and search for new gas production projects, taking advantage of the exit of many oil and gas companies from the Russian market and the possibility of their heading to the African market, similar to the exit of oil companies Equinor, Shell, and ExxonMobil from the Russian arena, and developing a strategy to exploit this situation. Refocusing on LNG assets in promising continental countries such as Mozambique, Cameroon, and Mauritania.
