As the war in Ukraine grinds toward its third month, the ripple effects continue around the world, affecting Africa in particular. Food prices have increased massively in the past month across the continent, which could lead to instability in countries already severely affected by Covid-19 or other crises. Sustained unrest, especially surrounding upcoming elections, could spell trouble for the continent. The resulting instability and demand for increased security assistance may create an opening for outside involvement from private military contractors (PMCs), including Wagner Group.
Food prices are skyrocketing and have reached all-time high prices on the global market. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions have driven the crisis, as much of the world relies on Russia and Ukraine as their breadbasket. According to the African Development Bank, “wheat imports make up 90 percent of Africa’s $4bn trade with Russia and almost half of the continent’s $4.5bn trade with Ukraine.” This has led to a 64% increase in the price of wheat. In addition, the two countries are the top two suppliers of sunflower seed oil, used for cooking around the world. On a continent already experiencing severe economic setbacks caused by Covid-19, inflated food prices may lead to political instability and change.
Africa is no stranger to food riots and the resulting political upheaval. Experts have linked the Arab Spring, the series of upheavals in North Africa and the Middle East that led to several regime change in XYZ, to food riots triggered by increased food prices in 2008, particularly grain. In sub-Saharan Africa, increased food prices that year were linked to riots in Mozambique, Niger, and several other countries. Another cycle of unrest and change could be coming due to the war in Ukraine.
The continent has struggled through Covid-19, yet the Ukraine crisis presents a new challenge for African governments and societies. With food prices skyrocketing, desperate people may resort to riots to encourage their governments to lower national prices. These developments come at a politically sensitive time for several countries. Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, and Sudan are due for presidential elections this year. Food riots would disrupt the political status quo in these countries with elections looming.
This troubling trend could align with another problematic development—the expansion of Wagner Group into Africa. The group has intervened in Libya, Mozambique, Central African Republic (CAR), Sudan, Madagascar, and most recently Mali. Wagner carries out security assistance programs, including riot suppression, military assistance against rebel groups, and training programs. They have also conducted significant disinformation campaigns, often encouraging their own brand or supporting the Russian state in these countries. In exchange for their services, Wagner often receives mining and precious metal extraction rights and sites. The success of the Wagner group often comes at great cost. They have been responsible for human rights violations or other abuses of populations.
Wagner’s recent success in Mali featured a clear political victory over France, Mali’s security assistance partner for the last ten years. After it became clear that Wagner Group would be intervening in response to Mali’s long-term insurgency, President Emmanuel Macron removed French forces in February 2022. Mali has hung an “open for business” sign on the Sahel. This development signals to Wagner as well as other African states that Western security assistance is on the decline, and that Wagner offers an “efficient” method of solving nagging political and military issues in Africa. Food riots, upcoming elections, and political instability may create the perfect storm for more African leaders to reach out to Wagner Group for support.
African governments facing instability over food prices may be tempted to turn to the Wagner Group for XYZ. This would be a mistake. Although Wagner Group offers short-term benefits for African leaders, their brutal methods are likely to delegitimize the government over time. Governments facing the pressures of food riots and elections will need to understand the long-term results, should they commit to employing the Wagner Group. These include human rights violations, failed military campaigns, potential Western sanctions, and economic losses from resource extraction operations. Further, leaders will need to determine whether aligning with the Russian state during this fraught time is a wise idea.
Wagner Group and the Kremlin have their own choices to make as well. Reports have suggested that Wagner Group has deployed some forces to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including from CAR. German Military Intelligence recently intercepted signals connecting Wagner Group operatives with war crimes against civilians in Ukraine. If Wagner has begun redeploying its forces to Ukraine, this may represent a shift away from Africa. Yet, Wagner offers a powerful tool of Russian influence in Africa that can help the Russian state build political and military relationships on the continent. Both parties would benefit from maintaining or expanding these operations in Africa, instead of wasting this valuable resource on the battlefields of Ukraine.
