The Flag March that took place in the Old City of Jerusalem, less than 48 hours after the Knesset (Israel’s parliament) approved the new Bennett-Lapid coalition government, has underscored the importance of the various aspects of the security situation.
The event marked the first security challenge of the new Israeli government of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and occupied all Israeli security, military and political institutions for an entire day.
Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision was taken to test the new government’s ability to control the situation without confrontations that would lead to a security escalation.
The new government, along with the military establishment, took all precautions to prevent confrontations between Jerusalemites, settlers and the far-right nationalists who participated in the march.
Despite the violent means used by the Israeli police and army soldiers to disperse Palestinian protesters, it is clear on the ground that Israel and Hamas want to maintain calm and prevent escalation, in an attempt to implement the prisoner swap deal and achieve a breakthrough.
However, the incendiary balloons launched a day after the march and causing several fires in four areas in the southern towns kept the issue a priority, especially because residents of these areas feared they would be the first victims of this march.
Israel considers the launch of these balloons from Gaza to be one of its red lines. Bennett and Defense Minister Benny Gantz had previously announced the government’s rejection of the act.
Bennett cannot allow himself to appear as if he is restraining himself from acting in the face of Hamas’ provocations while being watched by Netanyahu, who is now the new opposition leader.
The Israeli army asked Netanyahu to advise Bennett on how to respond severely without igniting a new confrontation.
Bennett first ordered fresh air strikes on Hamas military facilities in Gaza Strip.
Currently at least, the security challenge is not limited to the arson balloons. Before igniting the fires in the south, an Israeli report was issued claiming that Hamas is moving forward in building tunnels and has succeeded in smuggling large quantities of construction materials through border crossings to build “hundreds of kilometers of tunnels the Israel military refers to as ‘the metro.’”
The report held Netanyahu’s government accountable for neither preventing nor detecting the construction of these tunnels. It pointed out that reduced manpower for the surveillance units was due to an inadequate state budget that led to a freeze in funding to strengthen these units.
Hamas had managed to build its warren of tunnels and significantly increase its array of rockets on the southern border with Gaza, the report stressed.
In addition to these security challenges, Israeli security services considered both Hezbollah’s precision-guided missile manufacturing project as well as the Iranian nuclear deal as challenges that need to be addressed by the newly formed government.
The new government, which brings together various partisan factions from the right-wing, represented by Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, and the left-wing, represented by the Meretz party, is expected to face similar internal challenges.
Israel without Netanyahu
After installing the new government, Israelis recalled a statement by Netanyahu in which he mourned former Israeli President Shimon Peres by saying “this is the first day in the State of Israel without Shimon Peres.” After twelve years in power, they recited a similar statement but replaced Peres with Netanyahu.
Netanyahu, who refuses to move out of the prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem, still rejects the new reality that he has become the opposition leader in the Knesset. Following the swearing-in of the new coalition, he was keen in his remarks to stress his party will return to power soon.
He repeated a pledge to topple the new government, which was approved by a 60-59 vote in parliament. “We will be back soon,” he insisted. It is feared that, after the first internal crisis, the former premier will succeed in mobilizing extra votes from the right-wing MKs who either supported Bennet’s government or refrained from voting for it. Netanyahu seeks to implement his plan in the first no-confidence vote in light of an internal controversial political issue among the coalition parties.
The new Knesset formation comprises a majority of right-wing MKs, which serves Netanyahu’s interest and would help him to become a premier again. Moreover, there are some rebellious deputies from the coalition parties who may secede from their parties and join Netanyahu due to the fragile coalition.
This situation poses a major challenge to Bennett, who should find means to ensure the continued support of the left-wing parties in the government coalition and provide compromises to prevent their withdrawal and guarantee harmony among all of the components of the government.
In order to achieve these goals, the new premier should either breach commitments, like his predecessor, or alter his ideological direction.
Nevertheless, Bennett and Yair Lapid could also secure the votes of the Arab Joint List. During the voting process, three List MKs who initially abstained from voting decided to eventually vote against Netanyahu’s government. This prompted political figures to consider the List responsible for the new government’s ability to secure the required number of votes.
This gives Bennett the opportunity to approach the rest of the List members who “categorically reject any step that would directly or indirectly show their support for a government headed by the right-winger Bennett,” as some have stated.
Bennett and Lapid could also breathe a sigh of relief after the statement issued by MK Ahmed al-Taibi in which he affirmed that his party would give the green light to the government.
Price to be Paid by Left-Wing, Centrist Parties
In order to preserve this government, which is considered a first in Israel in terms of its political composition, right-wing and left-wing coalition parties must make concessions and avoid disagreeing on issues of principle. Any disagreement would lead to transferring the matter to the Knesset, and the right-wing lawmakers will most likely vote against it.
The left-wing parties will find themselves compelled to compromise since the Knesset is comprised of a right-wing majority. The first concession was allowing Ayelet Shaked to be given Labor chief Merav Michaeli’s spot on the Judicial Selection Committee. Shaked threatened to block the formation of the new government if she did not receive the post.
In order to achieve the common target of toppling Netanyahu, Michaeli agreed to give her the post.
As for the distribution of ministerial portfolios, Shaked was assigned Interior Minister, Gideon Saar became Justice Minister, and Zeev Elkin was appointed Housing Minister. All of them belong to the right-wing and far-right parties, which may cause disputes with the left-wing and centrist parties in the new government coalition.
Acquiring these high-level posts is not a coincidence since there are still unresolved issues between the left and right-wing parties in each of these three ministries.
Differences seem to remain within the government over the ministries’ portfolios, and one of the major disputed topics between both parties is the settlement in the West Bank and Jerusalem. The new premier and the right-wing ministers still could not agree about who will become head of the settlement ministry, which was recently formed during Netanyahu’s rule.
This subject, which may constitute a serious obstacle in the face of the government coalition, was clarified by Bennett on the day he assumed his new post when he announced that one of his government’s major goals is to “enhance settlements throughout Israel.” He circulated his statements on the media and stressed that his government will “ensure attaining the national interests in Areas classified C and raise the standards and resources after many years of neglect.”
Bennett’s remarks were similar to Netanyahu’s, which poses a real problem for left-wing and centrist parties. However, they are a minor concern compared to the agreed-upon matters that constitute a firm base to maintain the new government coalition.
Bennett was keen to highlight these matters in his words before the Knesset, also addressing the economy, welfare, education and work to improve social services, which are topics that concern the left-wing and centrist parties.
In light of the absence of religious extremist parties, the religion and the state issue is considered one of the agreed-upon issues.
Washington and Security Challenges
The new government has mainly inherited from Netanyahu an intense security situation. It includes the conflict in Gaza with the Palestinians and the difference with the US administration on the Iranian nuclear deal.
To what extent will the new government be capable of jointly addressing the security and strategic issues, such as Iran, the northern front and the Palestinian arena? The answer to this question depends on the coalition government’s ability to maintain good ties with the US administration and avoid disputes with it on various issues, the most important of which are the Palestinian situation and the agreement with Iran.
US President Joe Biden’s administration is awaiting the Israeli decision, which will directly affect its next steps with Tehran. At this point, the Gaza Strip is considered the biggest challenge Bennett is expected to address, and is a top priority on his government’s agenda.
The text of the ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Hamas through the Egyptian mediators only stated that calm would be in exchange for calm. Therefore, Israeli security officials expect the security situation to break down again.
In regards to the nuclear deal, Bennett has taken a similar position to that of Netanyahu by rejecting it and preventing any Iranian threat to Israel’s security.
Concerning the northern front, Israelis expect Hezbollah’s precision-guided missile manufacturing project to constitute the greatest challenge faced by Bennett-Lapid government, particularly by Defense Minister Benny Gantz.
Israel will face a dilemma once Hezbollah starts manufacturing these missiles on Lebanese soil, security officials note, adding that the decision to destroy this capacity will certainly lead to war.
Holding Netanyahu’s government responsible for not addressing and preventing the construction of Hamas tunnels due to the lack of state budget will require the current government to face increasing budget demands by the army.
The security forces will want to ensure they are prepared at the defensive, intelligence and offensive levels for any confrontation and to refill the ammunition warehouses, especially after the recent round of fighting in the enclave. They may also demand implementing Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi’s multi-year plan.
Facing Netanyahu
Netanyahu’s “We’ll be back soon” statement has opened the door for discussion on the means of preventing him from achieving his goal to return to power.
Former Defense Minister Ehud Barak, whose Labor party is part of Bennett government’s coalition, has launched a provocative campaign against Netanyahu, through which he calls for preventing him from becoming a premier again.
Barak suggested addressing Netanyahu’s so-called “threat” seriously and firmly. “Netanyahu has been destroying any trace of luxury, truth and confidence in public life for five years now. He is surrounded by a group of cronies that looks like a combination of a brainwashed sect and a crime organization. There is a reason why security guards have been deployed to protect public prosecutors, the legal advisor to the government, public figures and all those considered opposed to him,” Barak wrote.
He pointed out that Netanyahu has made achievements throughout the years that will be recorded in his favor. However, people who took advantage of pledging allegiance to him to evade the law have undermined his accomplishments, he added.
Barak further noted that Netanyahu seeks to threaten the Public Prosecution to reduce his sentence term.
Netanyahu will try to extort a pardon from the president and look like a victim, Barak stressed, adding that all this will be recorded in history as the state’s surrender to threats from its head.
He also addressed Bennett and Lapid saying that the “desperate” Netanyahu will lead a decadent and irresponsible opposition.
He recalled the former premier’s efforts to return to power, stating that he will not hesitate to disturb people’s lives even if it is at the expense of harming Israel’s interests.
Netanyahu will not be deterred by harming Israeli-US ties or even Israel’s security, Barak warned.
Commenting on the new government, Barak said many political figures hope it succeeds in carrying out its duties. He pointed to its recent formation, which makes it vulnerable in the first five months before passing the new budget.
Netanyahu will work hard to topple this government based on his political experience and on the various network operations available to him, he warned, adding that he may even exploit his 12-year accumulated political capital and internal supporters.
“A defect or an unexpected event might also cause the government to lose its majority and collapse.”
Barak finally warned the new government against keeping Netanyahu updated on political developments during this sensitive period, stressing that it would represent an “irresponsible gamble that will cost the government a very high price.”
Next time, it will be very difficult to repair the damage, and it may not even be possible, he added.
