The Vienna talks began in early April 2021 and have included several rounds of high-level discussions. Expert groups also have been working on proposals on how to resolve the issues around American sanctions and Iranian compliance, as well as the “possible sequencing” of the U.S. return. High-ranking diplomats from China, Germany, France, Russia and Britain resumed talks to bring the United States back into the nuclear deal with Iran.
The EU is trying to broker an agreement between the United States and Iran for each side’s return to the deal. There is no doubt that Europe today is weaker than in 2015, because of Brexit and the coronavirus pandemic. Since the United States left the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) the Europeans have been unable to keep the deal alive beyond its vital functions.
What the Europeans need is to create an understanding among themselves, coordinate with China, Russia and Iran, and then take the proposals to the U.S. delegation. The United States has returned to the negotiations table after nearly three years of tensions following Donald Trump's dramatic decision to withdraw from the landmark agreement. Diplomatic envoys from the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, China and Iran, in addition to EU officials, met in the Austrian capital in search of a breakthrough to convince the US to lift its Trump-era sanctions on Iran.
A diplomatic source for the trio of European nations at the talks, namely the UK, Germany and France, said that on the 1st May discussions took place amid a "serious and focused atmosphere despite outside turbulence…We have yet to come to an understanding on the most critical points.” The European source concluded that “success is by no means guaranteed, but not impossible."
It is clear that all parties worked seriously to agree on the steps that would be necessary if the agreement is to be refreshed. The European source said that after a round of talks those participants "took stock of progress" made in the talks, but also said on the 27th April, 2021, that much more work was needed. France was expected to be the main interlocutor for both sides, a Western diplomat told Reuters.
While the US Republican party continues to call for climate envoy John Kerry to resign or be investigated over allegations of improper interaction with Zarif, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani claimed that Iran’s enemies had been responsible for the leak of the audio recording at the center of controversy.
Khamenei has said Iran will immediately scale back its enrichment of uranium and deployment of advanced centrifuges after the country can verify that US sanctions are lifted, but is “in no hurry” as it is also trying to “nullify” sanctions through local production.
The International Atomic Energy Agency held talks with Iran in mid-April 2021, with the hope that Tehran would provide explanations about the origin of the uranium traces found in sites. An agreement reached to hold these talks helped persuade Europe to postpone attempts to get a resolution critical of Iran at a meeting of the Agency’s 35-nation Board of Governors in March 2021.
This avoided an escalation between Iran and the West that may have badly affected efforts to bring Washington and Tehran to the JCPOA agreement. The Europeans, France, Britain and Germany, may be trying to push for a resolution with the support of the United States at the next meeting of the Board of Governors in June 2021.
On May 1, 2021, a European diplomatic source said, according to the Al-Hurrah website, that the nuclear talks between world powers and Iran had not made as much progress as hoped after three weeks of negotiations, and "there is still no understanding on the most difficult issues." "We have a lot of work and a little time ahead of us," the source added and continued that "We were hoping for more progress this week, but we have not yet reached an understanding on the most important points," noting that success "is still possible, although not guaranteed."
Leaked recording
Zarif said in the "leaked recording" that "Russia was determined not to reach the nuclear agreement," adding that "the Russians did not expect that the nuclear agreement would be reached, and in the last weeks of negotiations, when it seemed that they would reach a conclusion, the Russians began to present new proposals" to block the path to agreement.
Iran sets trial dates for British and German nationals
While talks were going on in Vienna, Iran set trial dates for two dual nationals, one British-Iranian and the other German-Iranian, as an attempt to put more pressure on Europe. As the lead Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said at a Clubhouse event, the trials are scheduled because Iran wants a big “all for all” prisoner exchange. The British-Iranian facing trial is Mahran Maroof, who has been detained in Tehran’s Evin Prison since October 2020. Amnesty International has described him as a labor activist.
White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on April 9, 2021, that there are negotiations with the Iranians through private channels for the release of American detainees in Iran. She added that the efforts to release the American detainees will be led by "our diplomats and negotiators from the State Department," explaining that these discussions are often raised through various backchannels with the Iranians because there are no direct channels with Iran in the nuclear talks.
Informed sources revealed to the media "that negotiations between Tehran and Washington regarding a prisoner exchange had started in February, 2021, with Swiss mediation, explaining that they had made "great progress during the month of April," but have not yet reached the point of completing a deal. The sources revealed that “the negotiations on the prisoner exchange deal were carried out far from the indirect Vienna talks” between the two parties and were mediated by the parties to the nuclear agreement. However, they clarified that the atmosphere of optimism that had prevailed over the Vienna negotiations during recent times “contributed" to pushing forward the exchange deal negotiations. But the two matters are completely separate.
The sources added that the Iranian side, which is conducting negotiations with the U.S. side, "is not the Iranian government, but the Revolutionary Guard Intelligence Organization," stating that the negotiations were organized in Tehran and that currently taking place "is the second round."
The reasons for Europe's adherence to the JCPOA
- Maintaining the security of Europe and the Middle East – German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas confirmed his intention to intensify consultations with his European counterparts to create a common European position on stopping escalation with Tehran and to prevent a major fire in the Middle East, according to "DW" on January 7, 2020.
- European fears of disrupting navigation in the Gulf.
- Fears of terrorist activities in Europe, and increasing evidence that Iran has secret intelligence networks in Europe.
- Ensuring the continuity of the existing trade between Europe and Iran
It appears that Europeans are in a very difficult position, as they are trying to maintain a nuclear agreement which keeps Iran inside the nuclear arena as well as play the current mediating role by managing the indirect negotiations that have been ongoing in Vienna since April 2, 2021.
Europeans are trying to pressure the Biden administration with regard to Iran's regional policies and its ballistic missile program, meaning that European countries have their own demands regarding negotiations which constitute a major concern for them at a time when the Biden administration does not give great importance to these issues. There is no doubt that the Europe of today is weaker than it was in 2015 for reviving the JCPOA.
