Despite a population of just over a million inhabitants and an area of 23,000 square kilometres, Djibouti, situated on the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the most vital waterways in the world, is strategically important among world powers.
As the Houthi’s in Yemen continue to threaten international trade and tensions escalate in Bab al-Mandab and the Gulf of Aden, Djibouti’s role in securing this global waterway is crucial. The tiny country located across from Yemen,
where the conflict has become a threat to the strait through which about 9 percent of international maritime trade passes, including Arab tankers carrying petroleum to Europe, as well internet cables that connect the European continent with the Arabian Peninsula, East Africa and the Indian Peninsula.
CONTRASTED APPROACH
To protect the strait, the small Arab state adopted a different approach by hosting several military bases, making it an important player on the international stage. This helped to preserve the continuity of international trade across the strait and made Djibouti the “guardian eye” of the Bab al-Mandeb.
With the ongoing Operation Decisive Storm being carried out by Arab coalition forces to confront the Houthi threat in Yemen and prevent its threat to Arab interests, the persistent attacks on commercial traffic raise questions about the role that Djibouti may play in supporting Arab efforts to ensure the safety of navigation. The latest incident was announced by the British Maritime Trade Operations, where a British ship was attacked off the coast of Yemen on December 5. Previously, Houthis carried out several attacks, notably targeting the port of “Mocha” with a booby-trapped boat laden with explosives, targeting Saudi oil tankers west of the strategic Hodeidah port, four oil tankers in the UAE's economic waters and two oil tankers in the Sea of Oman.
THE ROLE OF GEOGRAPHY
Dr. Ahmed Abdel Dayem, a professor at the Faculty of African Graduate Studies at Cairo University, confirmed in exclusive statements to Majalla that since its independence, Djibouti has been committed to the preservation of Arab national security and that its geostrategic position makes it an axis for many conflicting forces while also preserving a necessary balance. It also managed to gain international leverage by hosting international military bases to secure oil and global trade, making its role vital. The strength of a state is not only measured by its economic capabilities or population numbers, but by its effective utilization of its capabilities, including a distinct geographical location, in addition to international political interactions. In this case, geography played a role greater than population size, geographical area, or even the economic status.
EXPLODING CONDITIONS
Arab concern, particularly in Egypt and the Gulf, about the renewed conflict in Bab al-Mandab is justified. Most of the Arab oil destined for Europe passes through the strait, where shipments amounting to about 4.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum products to Europe and the United States pass through. Any danger poses a threat to global energy supplies, not to mention commercial ships that pass through the Suez Canal, one of the most important tributaries to the Egyptian economy. The on-going Iranian threat raises concern among these countries, especially in light of Iran's efforts to avenge the killing of its nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhri Zadeh, and attacking, via its proxies in Yemen, any Arab, Western or Israeli ships passing through Bab al-Mandab.
Understanding the strategic importance of Djibouti has pushed Arab states to strengthen their ties with the African state. Saudi Arabia has already signed 25 agreements and a memorandum of understanding to strengthen their economic partnership and is working on the launch of a Saudi free trade zone in Djibouti o increase the export of Saudi products to the African continent. The two countries have also signed several agreements for joint military cooperation
Djibouti severed its diplomatic relations with Iran in January 2016 in solidarity with Saudi Arabia, following the attacks on the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in the city of Mashhad in Iran at the time.
Djiboutian President Omar Guelleh also visited Egypt in April 2019 to participate in the mini-summit called for by Cairo on the Libyan and Sudanese files, while Egypt participated with a high-level delegation headed by Parliament Speaker Ali Abdel-Al in the same year in Djibouti's celebrations of its forty-second independence.
A GLOBAL RESPONSIBILITY
Major General Ali Hefezi, former governor of North Sinai and former assistant Minister of Defense, said in a statement to Majalla that unfavourable events will occur if interests are unaligned. Currently, there is instability due to conflicting parties, and if this conflict continues, we will find from time to time a change in the situation according to what each party finds fit to serve its own interest, and such incidents and terrorist acts that occur are difficult to stop by any party, regardless of its strength, he added.
Hefezi also pointed out that there is a conflict of interest between regional powers, and as long as this conflict continues, it is possible that such incidents will recur in Bab al-Mandeb, until an agreement and a clear strategy is put in place to improve stability. He explained that Bab al-Mandeb is an international corridor and not an Arab one, and the responsibility to secure it is an international one.
INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL CONSENSUS
Hefezi stresses that one way to ensure international and regional consensus that preserves stability is by developing a new approach with the next American administration as Arab and local parties can only play a role within an international framework.
He explained that the United States is leading activities in the region, and is currently making space for other parties to participate, provided they maintain a leading position. He added that the multiple military bases in Djibouti have been allowed to participate in a manner that does not infringe on the American position and its interests in the region.
These sentiments were reiterated by security expert, Major General Adel Al-Omda, who said in his statements to Majalla that protecting Bab Al-Mandab is a joint responsibility bordering countries, as well as Egypt considering it is the main entrance to the Suez Canal. Moreover, it is a global stream supported by international efforts to maintain the continuity of trade. Al-Omda pointed out that the movement of international trade takes place through transnational companies, and these companies have an influence on the international decision, whether that of individual countries or the United Nations.
THE IRANIAN RESPONSE
Although the mayor said that it is possible that Iran's tentacles would make new threats in Bab al-Mandeb, he ruled out that Iran would directly target Israeli ships and said that the Iranian response to the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is possible, but targeting Israeli ships is unlikely. This is because while superficially relations between Tehran and Tal Aviv may appear to be in disarray, beneath the surface there is agreement between Iran and Israel, despite the general perception that there is a conflict between them.
He said that the military bases in Djibouti represent a real military presence and place the Arab countries in one melting pot to secure navigational operations in the Red Sea, stressing at the same time that all countries that have interests in Bab al-Mandeb have a military presence in the countries of the Horn of Africa.
On the other hand, Abdel Dayem considers that securing navigation in Bab al-Mandab and the Suez Canal does not fall only on the states bordering it, but is a global responsibility approved by international agreements, pointing out that Egypt has a large fleet with a strong presence in the Red Sea capable of protecting Egyptian national security and that Djibouti’s position is clearly consistent with Arab and international ones in support of securing international trade. He dded that Djibouti is an Arab country and a signatory to the joint Arab defence agreements, noting that the relations between Cairo and Djibouti are characterized by close cooperation in various fields and that there is constant coordination between them.
DJIBOUTI AND ISRAEL
Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh recently said in an interview published by The Africa Report that his country is not currently considering following in the footsteps of the Arab and Islamic countries that initiated the normalization of relations with Israel. Guelleh explained that conditions are not suitable now for taking this step, indicating that Djibouti has no problem with Jews and Israel as a state. He pointed out that some Israelis visit Djibouti to conduct business, while citizens of the African country have had the opportunity to travel to Israel for the last 25 years.
“But we have differences with the government of Israel because it denies the inalienable rights of the Palestinians. All we ask of this government is to present signal of peace and we will do ten signals in return, but I fear that they will never do that,” he added.
THE ISRAELI PRESENCE
This statement clearly shows the Djiboutian position on establishing relations with Israel, but it also raises a question about the importance Djibouti represents to Tel Aviv, considering Israel has a strong presence in the Horn of Africa, which includes Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia. Western and Israeli reports confirm widespread Israeli cooperation with Eritrea and Ethiopia, culminating with the establishment of an Israeli military base in Eritrea.
The Israeli presence in Africa is not the result of the recent events; it extends back to the fifties and following the establishment of the State of Israel and underwent several different stages. After Israel succeeded in establishing multiple relations with non-Arab African countries, it suffered a setback when most of these African countries cut off their relations after the 1967 War of Attrition and the October 1973 War as a result of pressure from Arab and Islamic countries at the time.
But with Egypt holding a peace agreement with Tel Aviv, leading to the Oslo agreement and Wadi Araba, Israel began to restore its strong presence in the continent, taking the economic gateway as an entry point to African countries, most of which suffer from difficult economic conditions. This strengthened its presence through its economic experts, especially in the fields of agriculture and water, an area Israel excels in, while economic reports indicated that the volume of trade exchange between Israel and Africa amounted to approximately $ 5.7 billion in 2016.
This economic situation, in turn, strengthened the Israeli security and intelligence role, especially in the countries of the Nile Basin and the Horn of Africa. The visits by Israeli officials at various political levels to African countries, headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, were a clear reflection of the extent of the Israeli penetration, which almost culminated in the first African-Israeli summit at the end October 2017 in Togo, where 54 African countries were invited to participate at the time but was cancelled at the eleventh hour.
STRATEGIC GOAL
The Israeli presence in Africa reached its peak in the Horn of Africa, where reports indicated the establishment of an Israeli base in Eritrea, as well as the strong ties between Addis Ababa and Tel Aviv, which places the relationship with Djibouti as a "strategic goal" for Israel to complete its influence in the Horn of Africa and ensure its navigational security at both ends of the Red Sea.
Dr. Abdel Dayem points out that the statements of the President of Djibouti about his country's position on establishing relations with Israel indicates that Djibouti is an Arab country and is committed to Arab decisions. If we read between the lines, we will find that it is a real commitment to the Arab initiative, and if it happens AND the Palestinians obtain their rights, the Arab countries and the Palestinians themselves will conclude peace agreements with Israel.
TWO DIFFERENT PATHS
Abdel Dayem distinguished between two approaches to the relationship between Arab countries and Israel, whether they current exist or are expected to occur in the future, namely the path of "diplomatic representation" and the path of "popular normalization.”
The professor of modern history at the Faculty of African Studies at Cairo University told Majalla that the political track is subject to multiple considerations related to the circumstances of each country and the nature of regional and international variables. He indicated that Khartoum’s initiative to establish a relationship with Israel came after Sudan faced years of turbulence and its designation as a sponsor of terrorism which brought its economy to its knees, in addition to the impact of the civil war and the secession of the south. This meant that the only way Sudan could be removed from the terrorism list and to allow the flow of investments back to the country was through normalization with Israel, considering the role it plays in international politics.
He pointed out that in this context he understands the move that the UAE and Bahrain took to establish a relationship with the Hebrew state in light of the on-going Iranian threats to the Gulf states, the changes that took place in the US administration and the anticipated development of relations between Tehran and Washington. These factors reinforced Gulf concerns and pushed them to search for external forces, taking steps that may be interpreted as falling within the framework of a political tactic to preserve national security.
POPULAR NORMALIZATION
Regarding the second track, which Abdel Dayem refers to as the path of "popular normalization" between the Arab peoples and the Israelis, he says: "I think that the issue of normalization as a popular concept is difficult to implement since it is met with great rejection by the Arab peoples since Palestine and Jerusalem are both fundamental issues for Arabs and represent the heart of the Arab world. Whether it is Djibouti, Sudan, Bahrain, or any country that may attempt a relationship with Israel, it will suffer with the Arab peoples.” Citing the Egyptian position, he adds:" Egypt has officially established a relationship with Israel for a long time, but the issue of normalization is still facing clear popular rejection."
He explained that the same context applies to Djibouti, through which the statements of the President of Djibouti can be understood. His country is stable, important for the Arab world and is committed to Arab national security and the agreements signed, and at the same time it has multiple relations with Western powers and the Arab world; the military bases reflect this. Preserving the security of Bab al-Mandeb is considered a matter of national security for Djibouti, with the participation of the Arab countries and the world alike.
ISRAELI PRESENCE
General Hefezi believes that Israel is already present in Bab al-Mandab and that America wants to boost Israel’s position in the region and to expand its role. He explained that this does not mean that Israel will turn into a the ‘policeman’ for the region as this concept has practically disappeared since the October War, and leverage is currently taking place through internal and economic means. He also pointed out that the use of military force is the last tool of influence, and is applied when there are no other options. He believes that the next step is to create a role for Israel through forging economic alliances in the region. He also indicated that it is likely that other countries in the region will normalize ties with Israel, whether it is Djibouti or others.
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