Syrians gather at the scene of an explosion outside Aleppo University on 15 January 2013. Eighty-seven people were killed and dozens of others injured in a blast that ripped through the university. Source: AFP/Getty Images[/caption]
Syria’s agonising descent into civil war is becoming increasingly confused as the opposition fragments and the violence becomes more indiscriminate. Aside from the cost in human life and physical destruction, the scene is being set for a new battle between different factions seeking to impose their own idea of Syrian identity. It is becoming harder and harder to envisage ways the national fabric of Syrian society can be knit back together once the fighting stops.
The increasingly murky nature of the conflict is most evident in the bombing this week at Aleppo University, located in a government-controlled area known for its relative stability. As students sat down to take the first exams of the new year, two explosions ripped through the campus, causing a reported 87 deaths and injuring more than 160. It has been described as one of the single most deadly attacks throughout the conflict, yet unlike previous bombings, no group has claimed responsibility. Instead, the rebels and the government have blamed each other. Sources on the ground suggest the explosion at the university had been caused by a car bomb.
With the escalation of the conflict, there have also been reports that tensions and divisions between the coalition of rebel groups fighting Assad’s government are becoming more overt, and potentially deadlier. The Al-Qaeda affiliated militia group, Al-Nusra Front, is now the dominant force in Aleppo, overtaking the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Liwa Al-Tawhid fighters. Yet, this hierarchy may have changed by next week as neighborhoods swap hands under rival militia groups. Foreign fighters have already joined the fray, with Lebanese and Iraqis well-represented in the ranks of the Ahrar Al-Sham, a loose alliance of Salafists and Islamists. If no way is found to resolve these differences, further internecine conflict could be on the horizon.
The nature of the fighting between the government and the rebels may soon begin to change, as rebel attacks, now increasingly spearheaded by radical jihadist militants, have switched their focus to government air force bases, which could level the playing field between the two sides, further prolonging the stalemate. There are also reports that the Syrian regime is in the process of forming a civilian militia to defend certain cities and areas. Two outcomes can be foreseen. For one, it will further complicate an already intricate conflict scenario. The creation of regime-backed militias will also relieve the regular army from the demands of providing public security, thus liberating more resources to combat the opposition. If the government is able to rely less on airpower and fight it out on the ground, even more of the country could come to resemble a warzone.
The Kurds represent a wild card when it comes to taking sides, adding to the already crowded mix. The newly formed Kurdish Supreme Committee have had a virtual free reign over Syria’s northeastern villages since government troops left them to their own devices in July last year. If a new opposition government is installed in Damascus, Syria’s Kurds may be unwilling to give up their new-found autonomy. The current anarchy serves the interests of pro-independence, in some cases extremist, Kurdish activists as the overstretched Syrian army focuses its attentions on the central cities, keeping the other rebel groups distracted.
Syria’s myriad competing groups have the potential to cause fissures within long-established communities. As a dark cloud descends on Syria’s ethnic and sectarian landscape, the fog of war becomes increasingly impenetrable.
