When Mr. Mohammed Al-Sowan, head of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Justice and Development party, told me with surprising confidence last week that Libya’s Islamist parties would emerge with a majority in parliament, I thought it odd considering results proving otherwise.
At this point in time, the National Forces Alliance, most closely associated with Mahmoud Jibril, was exceeding expectations and winning landslide victories in many of Libya’s towns and cities. Yet, the wild card in this election is the 120 seats reserved for independent candidates, in contrast to the 80 seats allotted to parties, which is precisely where the National Forces Alliance has emerged strong.
Evidently, Al-Sowan and his colleagues are relying on the support of independent candidates. But as everyone scrambles to win their support, those of us itching to report clear election results will be left in the dark for days, possibly weeks to come. Essentially, no one will know who is allied with whom until a cabinet is formed.
Even so, there is no guarantee that independent candidates will always vote with the same party. Shifting allegiances will likely ensure a perpetual state of uncertainty in Libyan politics. Discernable voting patterns will not emerge until parliamentary members have had a chance to cast their votes over a period of time, suggesting that anyone claiming victory at such an early stage (note that the final election results will be announced Tuesday night) is engaging in wishful thinking.
Furthermore, parliament will not sit until the major parties are convinced that they have managed to attract all the support available to them. This could place Libya in a dangerous state of limbo between the rather spineless rule of the National Transitional Council, so far unable to secure the country, and the expected hand over of power to the newly elected parliament.
Several days after my conversation with Al-Sowan, I heard him make a particularly distasteful comment to Sky News Arabic on 12 July in which he said: “A lot of good Libyans were fooled into voting for the National Forces Alliance. But the majority of the people who chose the National Forces Alliance are those who still believe in Qadhafi and their spirit is with Qadhafi.”
Here, Al-Sowan is no doubt referring to Jibril’s position in the Qadhafi government as head of the National Planning Council of Libya and of the National Economic Development Board of Libya from 2007 to early 2011.
Yet, the Brotherhood and its partners are no different. In the years preceding the revolution, it, along with Abdul-Hakim Belhadj of the Islamist Al-Watan party, reconciled with the regime following concessions made by the regime at the behest of Seif Al-Islam. Political prisoners were reformed and released, and the diplomatic lines kept open on both sides.
On the same day, Belhadj told an audience attending the Ennahda Movement’s ninth conference in Tunis the following: “Despite the results coming out now, I want to assure you that the final results will yield a congress in Libya that will serve the Al-Nahda Movement.” Belhadj, whose party is believed to receive financial support from Qatar, went on to claim that fifty percent of independent candidates with seats in the new parliament are affiliated with Islamist parties. “Talks are ongoing for a new coalition that will be announced shortly,” he said.
Very curious, indeed.
While Jibril has cast himself as the great unifier, even engaging in early coalition talks with his more conservative rivals, the Islamists have moved to divide the country further, going as far as claiming allegiance to a foreign project, of which, as I understand, most Libyans are profoundly suspicious.
In the coming days, a picture will emerge, and it will likely surprise us all.
