Coronavirus Adds New Layer of Iranian Isolation

Iran’s long list of adversaries has grown by one more as coronavirus has spread rapidly throughout the country, infecting even senior officials. The outbreak has added a new layer of isolation, as major Iranian allies and trading partners have cancelled flights and suspended visas. Meanwhile, despite reassuring rhetoric from President Rouhani, Iranian officialdom evinces signs of escalating alarm.

OMNIOUS CLOUDS GATHER AS CORONAVIRUS CASES MULTIPLY
 
Over the last ten days, Iran has won the unenviable distinction of hosting the largest number of coronavirus cases outside of China, where the virus is believed to have originated. President Hassan Rouhani attempted to play down the extent of the threat and reassure Iranians not to be afraid of coronavirus. Indeed, he went so far as to blame Tehran’s “enemies” for exaggerating the threat, saying "we should not allow America to add a new virus, named disruption of social activities and immense fear, on top of coronavirus. This is a conspiracy that we are witnessing and you also can see in foreign propaganda."
 
Yet even as Iranian officials were seeking to reassure the public and the international community that the virus was contained, the leader of the Iranian government’s task force charged with containing coronavirus, Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi — who had urged the public not to overreact to the virus only days earlier — announced in a homemade video that he himself had tested positive for the disease. So far the Iranian Ministry of Health admits that 95 Iranians have tested positive for the disease, but Western health researchers suspect the total may be as high as 18,000.
 
IRANIAN ISOLATION DEEPENS
 
Speaking at a press conference on Tuesday, February 25, in Washington, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the U.S. was "deeply concerned" that the Islamic Republic government "may have suppressed vital details about the outbreak." Pompeo went on to decry the Iranian government’s policy of censoring unflattering news and to urge "all nations, including Iran, [to] tell the truth about the coronavirus and cooperate with international aid organizations.”
 
Few nations appear prepared to take Tehran at its word that the virus is under control. The UAE took the extraordinary step of banning all flights to and from Iran. According to the Emirati General Civil Aviation Authority’s statement, “effective immediately… all passenger and cargo aircraft traveling to and from Iran will be suspended for a period of one week, and could be up for extension.”
 
Perhaps equally surprising, the Russian government, which often behaves as a de facto Iranian ally, announced it was effectively barring Iranians from entry into its territory. On February 26, Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova announced Russian authorities planned to cease issuing visas for regular and transit travel to Iranian citizens. Despite the calm reassurances from Iranian officials, such drastic steps from friendly or neutral governments are difficult to interpret as anything other than a vote of no-confidence in Tehran’s efforts at containment.
 
AN UNDERWHELING RESPONSE
 
Indeed, from what can be observed from afar, those efforts have done little to merit confidence. In one crucial measure of the trustworthiness of Iranian reassurances, independent flight trackers have confirmed that Iran’s Mahan Air airline, a partially owned subsidiary of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, has continued flights to four Chinese cities in the past three weeks despite consistent denials by Iranian officials. China, of course, has been the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak with uncounted tens of thousands of infected cases.
 
Iranian officials themselves have begun behaving in ways that suggest they are considerably more alarmed than their rhetoric indicates. On Monday, within the halls of the Majles, Iranian legislators voted against the general outlines of the government's proposed budget bill and to cease all further deliberations over fears that lingering in the building risked exposure to the virus. One anonymous MP told Iranian press that "if the Majles had approved the general outlines of the bill, the parliamentary regulations would force the MPs to hold two consequent Majlis sessions per day", which would have meant congregating further and risking infection.