Trump may be a lame duck at home but not abroad

A Democrat-majority Congress will clip his wings at home, but he will have far more freedom to act on foreign affairs, given the powers he still retains as commander-in-chief

Trump may be a lame duck at home but not abroad

After US President Donald Trump’s disastrous defeat in the midterm elections, the American leader will have little option but to spend his remaining two years in office focusing on his controversial foreign policy agenda. With Republicans losing control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, Trump has effectively become a lame-duck president when it comes to implementing his domestic agenda.

Under the US Constitution, Congress controls both the legislative agenda and the purse strings, meaning that without Democrats’ support, Trump will find it virtually impossible to pursue his political and economic agenda.

And with the Democrats giving every indication that they intend to spend the next two years of Trump’s term at the White House launching investigations into his conduct, especially over allegations of corruption, Trump’s main priority on the domestic front is likely to focus on defending himself against the possibility of facing impeachment.

With Trump’s room for manoeuvre severely limited so far as his domestic agenda is concerned, his only option will be to concentrate his energy on global concerns, an area where he will have far more freedom to act given the powers he still retains as the country’s commander-in-chief.

Foreign focus

This means that, so far as the ongoing conflicts in Iran, Gaza and Ukraine are concerned, Trump will still be able to play a leading role, one that, so far as the Middle East is concerned, could have profound implications for the region’s future stability and security.

The only obstacles he is likely to face from Democrats in his dealings on the world stage will emerge if he requires Congressional approval. For example, any further attempt by the Trump administration to ease sanctions against Russia as part of the president’s attempts to improve relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin would face stiff resistance from the Democrats in Congress, which has the power to veto any changes to the existing US sanctions policy against Russia.

Most Democrats simply do not share Trump's confidence that Russia is serious about negotiating a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine conflict. The Kremlin has certainly lost no time seeking to take advantage of what the Russians will see as Trump’s diminished status after the midterms, with Moscow keen to use the American leader’s domestic difficulties to press for a peace deal that is favourable to Moscow’s interests.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to Trump’s disastrous showing in the midterms by saying he hoped the American president would remain committed to helping broker a deal to end the Ukraine conflict. “President Trump will continue his term, and we sincerely count on him continuing his peacemaking efforts,” Peskov told a state media reporter.

With Trump's room for manoeuvre severely limited so far as his domestic agenda is concerned, his only option will be to concentrate his energy on global concerns

Asked whether a Democratic-held Congress would hinder US-led diplomatic efforts on the war in Ukraine, Peskov stressed that the outcome of the midterm elections is "America's internal matter."

"There are ongoing developments, and very soon there will be another round of trilateral negotiations, as well as Melania Trump's successful peacemaking and humanitarian efforts. We hope all of this will continue," Peskov said.

White House special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, are expected to fly to Abu Dhabi next week to mediate a new round of peace negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian delegations.

Trump's willingness to engage with Putin has caused deep consternation among Washington's European allies, who fear that any deal that rewards Russian aggression following Putin's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine will have profound implications for the future of European security.

There are also tensions within the transatlantic alliance over Trump's treatment of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has come under intense pressure from the Trump administration to sign a peace deal that involves permanently ceding Ukrainian territory captured by Russian forces to Moscow.

Iran conflict

Trump's response to the Iran conflict in the aftermath of the midterms is another major security issue that could have serious consequences, especially in the Middle East where efforts are continuing to agree on the framework of a lasting peace deal between Tehran and Washington.

The incoming Democratic majority in Congress is reported to be considering putting pressure on Trump by passing a number of war powers resolutions designed to end the Middle East conflict. In an interview with Fox News, Trump admitted that the Iran war played a part in the midterm election results, but defended his decision to launch military action against the Iranian regime.

"I think a part of it was Iran," ⁠Trump responded when asked about the Republicans' disastrous showing in the midterms. "Iran was a ​piece of it," he separately told The Wall Street ​Journal. But the president continued to defend his decision to launch military strikes against Iran, maintaining that the action was necessary to prevent the country from developing a nuclear weapon. Trump said earlier this week that progress was being made in talks with Iran, adding, "It looks like that's coming together very nicely."

At the same time, there are concerns that the US is planning another round of strikes against Iran as the Trump administration seeks to intensify the pressure against Tehran in the hope of achieving its stated aim of regime change.

The US military carried out what it called "defensive" strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week, demonstrating that continued military action remains a key component of the Trump administration's approach to the Iran conflict.

But while Trump has said he has no immediate plans to strike Iran, concerns remain that Trump may be tempted to renew full-scale hostilities if he feels insufficient progress is being made in the peace negotiations.

Iran is certainly aware of the possibility of Trump renewing hostilities, with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the country's Supreme Leader, reportedly telling his senior commanders over the weekend to be ready to hit back "without geographical limitation".

Mohsen Rezaei, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, issued a similar warning, telling Drop Site News that "If the question is whether Iran still has the ability to continue missile and drone operations, the answer is yes. In the event of war, cables, data centres and artificial intelligence facilities could come within range. We will have a broader plan."

The midterm election results may have made Trump a lame-duck president on his domestic agenda, but he still retains the ability to remain a formidable presence on the world stage. The question now is whether he will be a force for good, or a president who ends up making the world even more unstable.

The midterm election results may have made Trump a lame-duck president on his domestic agenda, but he can still have a formidable presence on the world stage

Doubling down

"I think a part of it was Iran," ⁠Trump responded when asked about the Republicans' disastrous showing in the midterms. "Iran was a ​piece of it," he separately told The Wall Street ​Journal. But the president continued to defend his decision to launch military strikes against Iran, maintaining that the action was necessary to prevent the country from developing a nuclear weapon. Trump said earlier this week that progress was being made in talks with Iran, adding, "It looks like that's coming together very nicely."

At the same time, there are concerns that the US is planning another round of strikes against Iran as the Trump administration seeks to intensify the pressure against Tehran in the hope of achieving its stated aim of regime change.

The US military carried out what it called "defensive" strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week, demonstrating that continued military action remains a key component of the Trump administration's approach to the Iran conflict.

But while Trump has said he has no immediate plans to strike Iran, concerns remain that he may be tempted to renew full-scale hostilities if he feels insufficient progress is being made in the peace negotiations.

Iran is certainly aware of the possibility of Trump renewing hostilities, with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the country's Supreme Leader, reportedly telling his senior commanders over the weekend to be ready to hit back "without geographical limitation".

Mohsen Rezaei, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, issued a similar warning, telling Drop Site News that "If the question is whether Iran still has the ability to continue missile and drone operations, the answer is yes. In the event of war, cables, data centres and artificial intelligence facilities could come within range. We will have a broader plan."

The midterm election results may have made Trump a lame-duck president on his domestic agenda, but he still retains the ability to remain a formidable presence on the world stage. The question now is whether he will be a force for good, or a president who ends up making the world even more unstable.

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