Republican anxiety is rising ahead of the US midterm election. Tradition dictates that the party occupying the White House generally loses seats in one or both chambers of Congress midway through its executive tenure. Sometimes these lost seats end up costing the party overall control of the legislature.
History offers only a handful of exceptions to this pattern of mid-term losses. In 1998, during Bill Clinton’s Democratic presidency, his party in fact gained seats in the House of Representatives, thanks to a booming economy. Four years later, in 2002, the Republicans also increased their representation in the same chamber, buoyed by strong public support for President George W. Bush’s ‘war on terror’ after the 9/11 attacks.
Losses suffered by the president’s party mid-term are typically attributed to public dissatisfaction with White House decisions, lower turnout among supporters of the ruling party, and higher turnout from supporters of the opposition. For his part, US President Donald Trump has good reason to be worried. His repeated pleas for his base to turn out to vote demonstrate this concern.
Polls suggest that Republicans could lose control of the House of Representatives on 3 November, when all 435 seats will be contested. Their current majority is precarious, with 218 Republican seats against 214 Democratic seats, alongside one independent and two vacancies. A joint Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted between 16 and 19 October found that 47% of registered voters intend to vote Democratic and 35% Republican.
Because the election is fought across 435 separate Congressional districts, US polling is notoriously imprecise. Political allegiances and electoral conditions vary considerably from one district to another. Still, analysts think a significant shift in the House's composition is possible. On 23 October, the Cook Political Report projected net Democratic gains of between 12 and 22 seats, enough for a majority. It had 220 districts as Democrat, 198 as Republican, and 17 as toss-ups (i.e. too close to call).
The Senate presents a bigger challenge for the Democrats. Of its 100 seats, 35 are being contested, including 33 in regularly scheduled elections and two in special elections in Ohio and Florida. Those two seats were previously held by Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, respectively. To secure a majority of 51, the Democrats must retain all 47 seats they currently hold (including those of the two independents who caucus with them, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine), while making a net gain of four.
Contentious races
Electoral assessments differ over which states are most competitive and how many races remain in contention. The Cook Political Report, for example, identifies seven states where the contest is finely balanced: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Republicans hold six of them, while Democrats hold Michigan. Democratic gains of three seats or fewer would still leave the Republicans in control of the Senate, because even if both parties have 50 seats each, Republicans would retain control of the chamber through Vice President JD Vance’s casting vote.
To mount a substantial challenge to the Trump administration's political and legislative agenda during the last two years of his second presidential term, the Democrats would need to control both chambers of Congress. Control of the House alone would let them block legislation, strengthen Congressional oversight, and launch investigations, but they would still lack full control over the legislative agenda or the power to veto presidential appointments requiring Senate confirmation.
