Ali Kayali’s capture is a victory that could backfire

Justice within the law

The question is not whether Kayali should face justice. The gravity of the allegations against him makes a thorough investigation essential. Human Rights Watch documented the execution of at least 248 people in al-Bayda and Baniyas, including women and children, many of whom were killed after fighting had ended. Investigating Kayali's alleged role could provide long-awaited answers to victims' families and, if the evidence warrants it, bring one of those implicated in the massacres to justice.

The issue is whether his arrest complied with the law. If reports that he was seized in Lebanon through a covert operation without the consent of Lebanese authorities prove accurate, the implications would extend well beyond his case.

Since taking power, Syria's transitional authorities have repeatedly pledged to uphold the rule of law, respect their neighbours' sovereignty and avoid regional disputes. Rebuilding ties with neighbouring states has been a priority, with officials promising Lebanon a relationship based on mutual respect and good neighbourliness.

Those commitments must govern security operations as much as diplomacy. Even if Lebanon has failed to prevent former Assad affiliates accused of serious crimes from using its territory as a safe haven, that failure would not justify bypassing its institutions.

The risks for Lebanon relations 

Lebanon is particularly sensitive territory for such an operation. Syria's decades-long military and intelligence presence formally ended in 2005, but its influence continued through informal networks. That history left a legacy of intervention and mistrust that the transitional authorities are now seeking to overcome.

A covert seizure could revive fears that Damascus still regards Lebanese territory as an extension of its own security jurisdiction. Such perceptions would complicate efforts to build a more balanced relationship, regardless of how widely Kayali is condemned in Syria.

The consequences could also affect efforts to pursue justice for other victims. Investigating suspects abroad requires cooperation on intelligence, evidence, witness testimony and lawful transfers. If reports that Syrian security agencies bypassed Lebanese authorities are confirmed, Lebanon and other neighbouring countries could become less willing to cooperate. A high-profile arrest celebrated today could therefore make future prosecutions harder.

The stakes are particularly high in Lebanon, where dozens of figures linked to the former Assad regime are reportedly living, some accused of serious abuses. Securing their cooperation with investigations, or arranging their lawful transfer to Syria, would require sustained engagement between the two governments.

Setting limits on security operations

An unauthorised operation would also weaken Syria's objections to foreign interference. Respect for sovereignty cannot depend on who is being pursued. If a suspect's notoriety becomes sufficient justification for bypassing another country's institutions, other governments could invoke the same reasoning to conduct operations on Syrian territory.

For a country rebuilding its security institutions after decades of authoritarian rule, the domestic implications are equally serious. Allowing agencies to conduct covert operations abroad without clear legal authority and oversight could establish a precedent that becomes increasingly difficult to contain.

Damascus should investigate the circumstances of Kayali's arrest and transfer, publish its findings and cooperate fully with the Lebanese inquiry. Anyone responsible for misconduct should be held accountable. Furthermore, future operations must follow established legal procedures, be coordinated with neighbouring governments and remain subject to clear oversight.

The celebrations surrounding Kayali's capture reflect a long-denied demand for justice. But accountability for Assad-era atrocities must do more than punish those responsible. It must also help establish the legal restraints that were absent under the former regime. Justice for victims of Assad-era atrocities should strengthen the rule of law, not undermine it.