Syria, Israel and the “Terror List”

Israel appears to view the “new Syria” through a strictly security lens and seeks to keep it weakened

Syria, Israel and the “Terror List”

Syria today is no longer the country the Middle East had grown accustomed to over the previous decades. A country that was once a troublesome regional actor, then after 2011 became an equally exhausting arena, now appears to be seeking a broad repositioning in order to reclaim a role of its own. Following political change, the end of isolation, the restoration of territorial control and the return of basic security, two challenges stand out above all others: the economy and Israel.

President Ahmed al-Sharaa has been moving with pragmatism tailored to Syria’s priorities, and with careful management of delicate regional balances. The “new Syria” has shifted from reliance on the Russian-Iranian axis towards a space closer to the United States and its allies, without cutting its lines to Moscow. The clearest indication of this shift has been the significant political opening from Donald Trump’s administration towards Damascus, accompanied by oil and gas contracts awarded largely to American companies such as Conoco and Chevron.

Notably, HKN’s agreement with the Syrian Petroleum Company covers most of the principal fields. These exclusive arrangements, which place the bulk of Syrian oil under an American umbrella, cannot be read as commercial transactions alone. They also signal a recasting of the relationship between Damascus and Washington, as well as a calculated wager on Trump.

In the Middle East, and in Trump’s worldview, oil is never merely an economic commodity. It is a language of influence, leverage and geopolitics. This was evident in Venezuela and in the confrontation with Iran. When American companies enter Syria’s energy sector, it suggests tacit American acceptance of Syria’s gradual reintegration into the emerging regional order, or at the very least a willingness to pull it out from beneath the rubble of a long war and away from the legacy of “old Syria.”

Some in Washington recognise that removing Syria from the list has become key to economic stability and for easing the country's hardship

Top challenge

Yet despite these promising signs, the top challenge facing Syria this year is economic, above all. A war that destroyed infrastructure, hollowed out state institutions, impoverished millions and displaced millions more has left behind an economy on the verge of collapse. Talk of political stability, refugee return, reconstruction or preventing the resurgence of the Islamic State (IS) will remain abstract unless accompanied by a genuine economic rescue plan.

At this point, a highly sensitive issue emerges: the need to remove Syria from the "list of state sponsors of terrorism," a designation dating back to the Assad era of the late 1970s. A historic breakthrough was achieved in 2025 with the end of diplomatic isolation, followed by the lifting of all Western sanctions, including the Caesar Act.

Yet Syria's continued presence on the terror list means, in effect, ongoing exclusion from the global financial system. It complicates any attempt to attract serious investment, reintegrate Syrian banks into international networks, or realise the potential of two major forthcoming conferences on reconstruction and humanitarian support.

The paradox is that some in Washington recognise that removing Syria's name from the list has become essential for economic stability and for easing the country's hardship. Others, however, wish to retain the designation as a tool of political pressure on Damascus, particularly in relation to Israel. In their view, sanctions should serve as leverage to push Syria towards political and security concessions on one of the region's most sensitive files.

Damascus argues that continuing Israeli violations undermine stability and obstruct any credible path to development

Intersecting challenges

Here, the two challenges intersect: the economy and Israel. Israel appears to view the "new Syria" through a strictly security lens and seeks to keep it weakened under long-term security arrangements. Damascus, for its part, argues that continuing Israeli violations undermine stability and obstruct any credible path to development, particularly in the south and in efforts to restore Sweida to the fold of the Syrian state.

Syria, therefore, proceeds with extreme caution. It does not seek an open confrontation with Israel, nor does it wish to threaten any of its neighbours. At the same time, it is unwilling to appear to be offering concessions without return under economic pressure.

Syria thus stands at an exceptionally complex moment. Its greatest test lies not only in emerging from war and isolation, but in breaking free of the war economy itself. This requires work on three fronts: the banking system, the legal framework and governance. Together, they must create an environment capable of attracting investment and turning figures on paper into concrete projects. It also requires Washington to remove Syria from the terror list without waiting until the end of the year.

font change