In the deepening stand-off between Iran and the US over who controls the Strait of Hormuz, resolving the crisis comes down to a simple question: who blinks first in a confrontation that threatens to inflict enormous economic damage on all sides.
For Iran, the US blockade of the Gulf could have disastrous implications for the country’s economic prospects at a time when it is already suffering the combined effects of a basket case economy and runaway inflation. On the other side of the equation, US President Donald Trump is likely to come under increasing pressure to resolve the conflict, the more the rest of the world suffers from the effects of rising energy costs, which are the direct result of the disruption to shipping caused by the Strait’s closure.
In particular, soaring energy costs in the US, which have experienced sharp rises in the cost of petrol and diesel, could have a major impact on the outcome of November’s mid-term elections, with Republicans increasingly concerned that voters could register their dislike of Trump’s handling of the Iran war by punishing him at the polls. There is, therefore, much at stake for both sides in this seemingly intractable dispute, with neither Trump nor the Iranians seemingly inclined to back down from their entrenched positions.
On the contrary, if recent events and statements are anything to go by, both sides seem determined to maintain their confrontational stance for as long as it takes, a factor that no doubt explains the cancellation of the second round of peace talks scheduled for this weekend in Pakistan.
