Israel's Lebanon attacks threaten fragile US-Iran truce

Iran has also moved quickly to accept the ceasefire, with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declaring that Iran would cease its defensive operations "if attacks against Iran are halted."

"For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations," he added.

Emerging cracks

But within hours of the deal being announced, cracks began to appear in the ceasefire after Israel carried out the deadliest terrorist attack in Lebanon's history by striking over 100 targets in the country in 10 minutes. Without warning, it rained bombs in all directions and even on civilian neighbourhoods in central Beirut, not considered to be "Hezbollah strongholds." Already, the death toll from the 8 April attack has passed 200 people, with many more bodies expected to be pulled out of the rubble.

The White House has previously indicated that, as part of the ceasefire deal with Iran, Israel had also agreed to a two-week ceasefire. But Israel quickly moved to deny this, insisting that the agreement did not cover its military operations against Hezbollah, which the Israelis regard as a separate conflict from the one being fought with Iran. In response, Iran said it had closed the Strait again and promised it wouldn't open it until Israel adhered to the truce. The apparent unravelling of the ceasefire so soon after it had been agreed prompted Pakistan's premier to appeal for calm following what he called "violations". 

"Violations of ceasefire have been reported at few places across the conflict zone which undermine the spirit of peace process," Sharif wrote in a post on X. "I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon, so that diplomacy can take a lead role towards peaceful settlement of the conflict."

'The US must choose'

But Iran laid the blame squarely at Israel's door for the continuing tensions in the region, with Araghchi declaring, "The Iran–US ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the US must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both. The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the US court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments."

The deepening tension over Israel's violent attacks has prompted Iran to threaten to restart the war if the US does not get its ally under control. Iran's closure of the Strait has sent fuel prices skyrocketing across Europe and the US, and has led to tensions between the US and Europe after Trump accused NATO allies of not helping to reopen the passage.

US Vice President JD Vance, who is due to travel to Islamabad this weekend for peace talks with Iran, called the disagreement around Lebanon a "legitimate misunderstanding", while suggesting the Israelis may curb their attacks on Hezbollah to help preserve negotiations. He put the cracks in the ceasefire down to a "legitimate misunderstanding" from the Iranians who "thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn't".

Nevertheless, with the ceasefire facing challenges on a number of fronts, Vance and the other negotiators will clearly have their work cut out if they are to agree a lasting settlement to end the conflict.