For the past 16 months, the Lebanese government and military have chosen not to choose—and risked their country’s future. Lebanon, a weak and divided state, committed in its 2024 ceasefire agreement with Israel to disarm Hezbollah—but Beirut has sidestepped its obligations rather than shouldering them. That could squander the opportunity provided by Israel’s 2024 pounding of Hezbollah. Rather than take on Hezbollah and risk intercommunal violence, Lebanon effectively chose war with Israel.
Taking a step back helps reveal the enormity of this blunder. March 14 will mark the anniversary of the “Cedar Revolution,” the brave 2005 popular uprising that ended the decades-long Syrian occupation of Lebanon. Yet decades later, Lebanon remains both an occupied country and a failed state. Iran continues to use Hezbollah to dominate the country, dictating policy and matters of war and peace.
Last week, Hezbollah fired missiles into Israel, ending a tenuous 15-month ceasefire. Beirut had tried to insulate Lebanon from the contagion of the Iran war, but Israel’s killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khameini on the first day of the war was a red line for Hezbollah. For the second time in less than three years, the group has dragged Lebanon into war with Israel. But Hezbollah doesn't bear sole responsibility for the conflict. The government of Lebanon also shares the blame.
Lebanese governments have a long, ignominious tradition of deferring difficult decisions. I hoped this might change when Beirut committed to disarming Hezbollah in its November 2024 ceasefire agreement with Israel. Hezbollah had emerged from the war battered, its leadership decimated, and its military capabilities degraded. Seizing the moment, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun pledged during his January 2025 inaugural speech to take away Hezbollah’s weapons. Unfortunately, fearing “civil war”—i.e., Hezbollah violence—Aoun deferred disarmament in favour of dialogue with the militia.
It took more than seven months—until the Fall of 2025—for Beirut to finally task the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) with confiscating Hezbollah’s arms. Licking its wounds after its mauling by Israel, Hezbollah consented to its neutering in south Lebanon and coordinated with the LAF as it appropriated thousands of rockets and hundreds of missiles along the border with Israel. But the LAF was not proactive. Instead, Lebanese troops reacted selectively to intelligence provided by Israel to a US-led cell based in Lebanon, avoiding sites Hezbollah deemed sensitive.
