When King Abdullah II told the BBC in mid-October that the Middle East is “doomed” without a credible peace process and a Palestinian state, it was more than rhetoric—it was a warning, and a deeply personal one. For Jordan—a country that has been both the custodian and casualty of every failed peace effort for three generations—the prospect of complete Israeli annexation of the West Bank is an existential threat.
That warning now feels eerily prescient. Just days after the interview aired, Israel’s parliament advanced a bill to annex large parts of the occupied West Bank, drawing immediate international condemnation and fuelling fears of a regional crisis. The measure—backed by far-right ministers including Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich but opposed by Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Likud party—would apply Israeli civil law to territory long recognised as occupied under international law, effectively formalising annexation.
Seismic consequences
The vote is the first of four required to pass the legislation. If that occurs, the consequences for Jordan could be seismic. Jordan’s 1994 peace treaty with Israel, signed by King Hussein and Yitzhak Rabin, remains a cornerstone of regional stability. It has survived two intifadas, wars in Iraq and Syria, and recurrent Gaza conflicts. But annexation would push it to the brink.
In Amman, officials describe the treaty as “interlocked” with Jordan’s relationship with Washington. Any rift, therefore, risks jeopardising the country’s financial and military lifelines—more than $2bn in annual US assistance and privileged access to US defence cooperation.
Since Israel’s war on Gaza began two years ago, anti-Israel protests have been a fixture in Amman and other cities. But the government’s verbal outspokenness and its withdrawal of its ambassador from Tel Aviv have done little to calm the anger on the street—especially in light of its quiet security cooperation with Israel.
If formal annexation proceeds, King Abdullah will face overwhelming pressure to suspend or abrogate the treaty. Any change to the treaty would mark the lowest point in bilateral relations since 1994 and likely trigger a reciprocal diplomatic downgrade by Egypt.
