Uncertainty: the silent killer of our age

What investments can be relied upon, and at what cost? Capital holders are not to be envied: traditional risk management is no longer enough. What is required today is the genuine ability to plan, to craft highly cautious scenarios that preserve some stability amid the maelstrom. The return to protectionist policies, hedging against AI risks, and the fragility of financial markets are further testimony that shaken trust has become not merely a pillar but the very cornerstone of any vision or strategy, whether economic or governmental.

Amid these mounting realities and the flood of information—true and false alike—global markets remain constantly on edge. Shifts in monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, speculation fueled by technology and cryptocurrencies, and fears of new restrictions on AI all reinforce a perpetual state of uncertainty, keeping trading in constant oscillation overnight. These fluctuations are no passing signals; they're decisive factors in financing, valuation, and investment decisions.

In the midst of this swirling tide of overlapping, complex crises, governments and companies seem powerless. Even with stricter hedging measures—such as diversifying supply chains, relocating manufacturing bases, cautiously investing in AI, and bolstering financial resilience—implementing these strategies remains challenging due to high costs, legislative ambiguity, and resistance to change, particularly within corporations. As for governments, they face the test of whether their economic models can endure repeated shocks, both external and internal.

The only certainty: uncertainty

We have grown accustomed to crises that come and go. Today, uncertainty itself has become the only constant. What's needed is a holistic vision of reality and the acknowledgement that no state or company is safe. Such an acknowledgement compels us to live in a constant state of readiness for scenarios that may never materialise—and the courage to take tough, swift, and risky decisions.

Uncertainty is no longer a flaw in the system; it has become the system itself.

It is worthwhile drawing lessons from history, such as the pandemic, which heralded a new era in which global confusion was one of the starkest hallmarks. Those able to withstand it were those with organisational resilience and greater adaptive capacity.

And let us not forget the collapses of 1997 and 2008. What if we witnessed another Lehman Brothers downfall? What if the ground gave way beneath Nvidia or OpenAI, Bitcoin, or even JPMorgan Chase? What kind of 'apocalypse' would await the world's markets, now fluctuating more violently than ever before?

The global economy is unlikely to collapse in a single blow. Instead, it may gradually weaken amid persistent uncertainty, as major companies risk losing billions to policy shifts, and investments recede once long-term planning no longer drives feasibility studies.

Every morning, we wake to questions without answers: Where will politics settle? How will the economy balance? Will work remain as we know it? Uncertainty has become our constant companion, sharing our bread and our fear, and testing our courage in the face of the unknown. Indeed, this globe-spanning uncertainty is, in my view, the greatest killer of all in this wretched age.