Is North Korea starting to regret its Ukraine war gambit?

Kursk kerfuffle

And while the Kremlin has introduced various measures to bolster the ranks of Russian frontline forces— including the recruitment of prisoners—severe manpower shortages have meant the Russians have struggled to achieve their battlefield objectives.

This is particularly the case in Russia's southern Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces succeeded in capturing significant areas of Russian territory during a surprise offensive last August, the first time Russia has lost territory to an invading army since the Second World War.

The loss of territory in Kursk was a particularly heavy blow for Putin, who has made recapturing the land one of his main priorities. But Russian attempts to liberate the territory from Ukrainian forces have been severely hampered by shortages of both manpower and equipment.

The arrival of North Korean forces to the region at the end of last year was, therefore, seen as a major boost for the Russian war effort, one that would enable Putin to achieve his goal of reclaiming all of the Russian territory captured by the Ukrainians.

But while the military support provided by the North Koreans has indeed enabled the Russians to make modest gains in Kursk, these have come at a terrible cost, with the newly arrived North Korean troops reported to have borne the brunt of the latest casualty figures.

Some 4,000 North Koreans have died or been injured since they were first deployed to Kursk last month, according to a recent statement issued by Zelensky, with US officials estimating that more than 1,000 of Pyongyang's troops died in the last week of December alone.

Used as cannon fodder

Western military observers allege North Korean soldiers have been sent into battle without being properly trained in modern warfare, with many of them simply being used as cannon fodder by Russian commanders.

The White House has claimed the North Korean troops are being used in futile "human wave" attacks by Russian generals who regard them as being "expendable". "We now assess that North Korean forces are conducting massed dismounted assaults against Ukrainian positions in Kursk, and these human wave tactics that we're seeing haven't really been all that effective," said John Kirby, a US National Security Council spokesman.

Neither Moscow nor Pyongyang will admit to the deployment of North Korean troops in the war against Ukraine, let alone to any casualties. But the presence of North Korean forces in Kursk has now been verified by Ukraine following the capture of several North Korean troops in the region, with two of them being brought back to Kyiv for interrogation by Ukrainian intelligence officials. Pictures that claim to show two badly-wounded North Korean soldiers have been published in the Ukrainian media.

Initial reports say the captured North Koreans have said they had no idea that they would end up fighting in Ukraine, having been told they were simply being sent to Russia for training.

As a result, they have found themselves highly exposed to the sophisticated drone operations being conducted by Ukrainian forces in Kursk, which have accounted for the heavy casualty toll inflicted on Russian forces.

Easy targets

Western observers have been surprised by the North Koreans' naivety on the battlefield, with footage posted on Ukrainian social media showing them attempting to hide behind trees in open, snowy fields while being mercilessly hunted by drones. A Facebook post by the Ukrainian 8th Special Forces regiment boasted of their "warm welcome for North Korean troops".

In an interview with The Washington Post, one Ukrainian drone commander said the North Koreans had no idea what was happening on the battlefield.

"We were very surprised; we had never seen anything like it," he said. "Forty to fifty people running across a field. That's a perfect target for artillery and Mavic (drone) operators. Russians never ran like that."

Another drone operator in the Kursk region compared the "bizarre" experience to "playing a computer simulator on easy mode", while a Ukrainian officer said the North Koreans were using the "same tactics as 70 years ago".

Nor is there much evidence that the North Koreans' contribution to Russia's war effort in Ukraine has made much impact on the course of the conflict. On the contrary, rather than being placed on the defensive by the North Koreans' arrival, the Ukrainians have launched a new offensive in the Kursk region, making a number of small territorial gains.

North Korea's decision to deploy its forces to support Russia's war effort in Ukraine may have helped to strengthen the newly-forged ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. But it appears to have made little difference to Russia's faltering effort to recapture territory in the vital Kursk region.