Since the end of the Cold War, the international system has been in transition. To what end is not yet clear, but the whatever happens next, Africa is central to this new contest gripping the globe.
Different scenarios are possible, including a return to a bipolar world dominated by the United States and China, but the development of a multipolar system is more likely.
In the meantime, the transition may prove disorderly and a period of rivalry between great powers looks likely, with the US, China and Russia competing to shape the future of wider international relations.
Africa’s importance is highlighted by its growing prominence within the BRICS bloc, while the G7’s most recent summit heralded the importance of “engaging with African countries, in a spirit of equitable and strategic partnership”.
History of colonialism
Competition between great powers over Africa is not new. It has reverberated for centuries. Only the actors and their methods have varied.
This story reveals the latest, intense international efforts to secure global influence via Africa and how the continent has evolved in terms of importance and potential.
For centuries, great power competition led to European colonialism, but in the 20th century new entrants included the US, the Soviet Union/Russia, and China.
In the 21st century, this competition has taken on added fervour. Middle-ranking powers are also keen to secure influence in this resource-rich and fast-growing region.
The Big Three
The extent of Washington’s ambition was clear in the latest US National Security Strategy, issued in September 2022. It said Africa’s evolution will be a central to the next century, for the US and the world, and that it is and important arena for the way the next generation of the world order is evolving.
For Beijing, there is also a central role for Africa in its strategic outlook. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, held in November 2022, noted that the continent would have a role in “reforming the global governance system”.
In Moscow, the Foreign Policy Concept issued in March 2023 envisaged Africa and the Global South as a major part of efforts to set up a “new multipolar international order”.
The competition plays out diplomatically, politically, economically, and militarily. Since the end of the Cold War, security efforts have focused on counterterrorism. This has also drawn in middle-ranking powers.
Yet after centuries of dominance, the West has increasingly been pushed out of some African countries in recent years, representing setbacks in the race for influence.
Closures and exits
The US has announced the closure of its two bases in Niger, one near Niamey and the other in Agadez, with a complete withdrawal of its troops by September.
French military deployments have already left Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, appearing to end the long-term military interests in the Sahel that Paris may once have had.
All the while, Russia has been focusing on picking up the pieces in North Africa, the Sahel, and its hinterland. Moscow may be expanding its presence in Libya, Sudan, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. In most of these states, military figures have launched recent coups.
Moscow is believed to harbour a long-term strategic ambition to build a Russian naval base in Port Sudan for access to the Red Sea. It is also increasing its military cooperation with General Haftar in eastern and southern Libya.
China, meanwhile, is consolidating its economic interests all over the continent, with infrastructure investments that are thought also to have potential military applications.
Scrambling for Africa
All this amounts to what is being called ‘the second scramble for Africa’. The first came in the colonial era in the late 19th century.
In 1894, 13 European powers plus the US met in Berlin to carve out African territories amongst themselves with the purpose of exploiting the continent’s rich resources.
Seven European countries ended up holding territory in Africa until the outbreak of the First World War in 1914. For the remainder of the 20th century, Africa was consumed with the struggle for political independence.
