After six months of ‘unity’, Israelis suddenly rediscover politics

Although anger at the government has boiled since Day 1, Israelis have been reluctant to hit the streets as they did before the war, when they expressed fury at Netanyahu for undermining the independence of Israel's judiciary.

Yet hours after the announcement by hostage families, the largest protest since the war began was reported in front of the Knesset (Israel's parliament in Jerusalem). Politics was making a loud and noisy comeback.

Divided we rule

Divisions opened in the Israeli cabinet, too. Ministers are divided over a law to partially remove a draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews. 

For decades, Israel's ultra-Orthodox has enjoyed an exemption from military service, which has long caused bitterness and resentment from others whose sons and daughters put themselves in harm's way.

For Benny Gantz, a former army chief and opponent of Benjamin Netanyahu who agreed to join an emergency government last year, this was a red line, and he threatened to quit the government.

The awkward temporary partnership between Gantz and Bibi has not gone smoothly and although Gantz's announcement was tied to the religious exemption, it is clear it draws on months of frustration.

The two have clashed over several issues, including Netanyahu's refusal to draw any realistic plans for the 'day after in Gaza'.

They have also been at loggerheads over Israel's war priorities, and Netanyahu's apparent appetite for a public clash with US President Biden, whose support Israel has needed.

As Gantz was making his threat, Gideon Sa'ar, one of his allies, actually walked the walk and left the government, claiming that the war cabinet lacked any critical voices.

This was an implicit criticism of Gantz, who entered the cabinet to serve as the dissenting voice for the growing majority in Israel who oppose Netanyahu.

Always simmering

Some will argue that politics never truly disappeared after 7 October. In many ways, they are correct. Certainly, Netanyahu never stopped being a politician.

For instance, he rejected an initial offer by his main opponent, Yair Lapid, to ditch his far-right partners and form a coalition without them.

Netanyahu would have been worried that the minute the war ended, Lapid would leave the coalition, thus forcing elections.

Indeed, the mere possibility that Lapid could leave would also have given him significant leverage over cabinet decisions.

Likewise, Netanyahu's far-right and religious allies have also regularly threatened to leave the government if their own red lines are crossed.  

Instead, Netanyahu picked Gantz as his main opposition partner for one critical reason: Gantz offered to enter the government without changing the ruling coalition.

This created a separation between the war cabinet and the ruling coalition. The former effectively includes only Netanyahu, Gantz, and Defence Minister Gallant.

The ruling coalition, by contrast, still largely relies on religious parties and a duo of far-right extremists: Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

Gantz's options

This separation means that Gantz's participation is not critical to the survival of this government, owing to his agreement not to condition his participation.

Gantz knows that his departure would have some immediate consequences but would not end Netanyahu's government.

If he were to withdraw, Netanyahu would have to rely even more on his far-right and religious partners, but this would not automatically lead to elections.

Removing the current government will require that more public pressure be put on the coalition, in particular through street protests.

Last year, an explosion in protests tied to the dismissal of Gallant forced Netanyahu to backtrack.

The prime minister's allies are now wary of how divisive he had become, but it is not clear that Gantz is truly ready to go for broke.

He stands to gain most from elections if they were held. According to polls, his party would get the most seats in the Knesset, passing Netanyahu's collapsing Likud.

In large part, this is because Gantz has been able to attract centrist voters and former right-wing supporters of Netanyahu who have grown disillusioned with him. 

Time to gamble?

Gantz also knows the path to elections is long and that his newly gained popularity can vanish just as quickly as it appeared.

Those who would vote for him are not longtime supporters who embrace his programme and vision. They are mostly centrists who no longer like Netanyahu.

If elections were announced, other contenders would appear, trying to position themselves as centre-right alternatives.

Importantly, Gantz's departure would leave the country even more divided, with elections meaning more demonstrations, mostly against Netanyahu.

Judging by the recent mass-demonstration in Jerusalem, Israel is already heading down that road. But the former army chief may not want to fuel division.

The choice between a return to politics and the awkward status quo (which serves Bibi and his allies) is one that all of Israel faces.

Whether Gantz wants it to or not, Israel is returning to its full-throated, full-blooded, no-holds-barred politics.

Just days after the Hamas attack on 7 October, Netanyahu was making decisions based on purely political calculations. How long will it take Gantz to do the same?