Iowa caucus landslide brings Trump one step closer to presidency

With the presidential contest now effectively underway, there is little chance of the Democrats opting to field another candidate, even if they wanted to.

When Biden celebrated his 81st birthday at the end of last year, the event was marked by the publication of a poll commissioned by NBC News that his approval rating had reached the lowest mark of his presidency.

Concerns about the state of the US economy, his administration's failure to tackle the immigration crisis, and Biden's unconvincing performance on the world stage on issues ranging from Ukraine to the conflict in Gaza have resulted in him continuing to receive low approval ratings.

On the day Trump secured his groundbreaking victory at the Iowa caucus, a new ABC/Ipsos poll showed that Biden's job approval rating had dropped to the lowest point - just 33% - which was the lowest rating an incumbent president had received since George W. Bush in 2006-2008.

All eyes on Trump 

In such circumstances, many pundits are turning their attention to how a new Trump administration is likely to perform in the event of him regaining the White House, which would also be a historic achievement as it is extremely rare for a one-term US president to return to the White House.

The last time this happened was at the end of the US Civil War when the Democrat Grover Cleveland returned for a second term four years after leaving the White House.

At his rallies, Trump has generally focused on domestic issues, especially his determination to fix the long-running issue of illegal immigrants entering the US. But world leaders will also be paying close attention to what impact a second Trump presidency might have on key global issues, especially on the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Read more: Trump might win, and US foreign policy will likely change

Trump has already made his views on the Ukraine issue known, consistently arguing against the Biden administration's open-ended support for Kyiv. Trump also prides himself on having a good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  

Supporters of Ukraine's courageous battle against Russian aggression fear that one of Trump's first steps as president would be to negotiate an end to the conflict on terms that would be hard for Kyiv to accept.

Indeed, Putin's apparent lack of interest in giving serious consideration to diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict is said to stem from his belief that if Moscow waits until the outcome of the US elections, it is likely to get a better deal with Trump in the White House than any offer that is forthcoming from the Biden administration.

At the very least, Putin would expect to retain control of the large swathes of eastern Ukraine his forces have already occupied and annexed, as well as the strategically important Crimean peninsula. These concessions would be extremely difficult for Kyiv to accept after all the sacrifices it has made in the war against Russia during the past two years.

Middle East policy

Trump's attitude to the Gaza conflict could also have an important influence on the eventual outcome. During his first term as president, Trump displayed his pro-Israel credentials by helping to negotiate the Abraham Accords, which resulted in several Arab states normalising relations with the Israelis.

A significant failing of the Accords, though, was their failure to address the Palestinian issue, an omission that some commentators have blamed on the latest eruption of violence between Palestinians and Israel.

By reiterating his support for Israel and not addressing Palestinian concerns, there is a strong possibility that a second Trump administration could exacerbate tensions in the region rather than resolve them.

Washington's approach to Iran would be another important policy issue, one where Trump has previously taken a hard line on Iran's attempts to sow discord in the Middle East, either through its nuclear ambitions or its support for groups linked to the so-called "axis of resistance", such as Hezbollah, Hamas and Yemen's Houthi rebels.

Trump's uncompromising approach to Iranian meddling was reflected in his decision to authorise the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the leader of the Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, at Baghdad airport in January 2020. He also ended Washington's participation in the flawed nuclear deal the Obama administration negotiated with Tehran.

Trump's administration played a key role in the destruction of Islamic State's so-called caliphate, suggesting that a new Trump administration will take a hard line towards other Islamist groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

The US presidential elections may still be ten months away, but the likely consequences of Trump regaining control of the White House in November are already being given serious consideration by policymakers across the globe.