Afghanistan braces for another difficult year ahead

More than two years after their takeover, Taliban rule continues to come at a painful cost for Afghan citizens

Since the Taliban took power in August 2021, the movement has violated the rights of women and girls, according to Amnesty International. In the photo, a Taliban member stands guard in front of a line of women waiting to receive aid

Afghanistan braces for another difficult year ahead

Omer Onhon

last update on 28 Dec 2023

The twin crises in Gaza and Ukraine have turned the attention of the world away from another festering issue, that of Afghanistan, which has almost constantly been in turmoil.

The Soviet invasion in 1979 and the following war of resistance, the rise of the Taliban, the American invasion in the aftermath of 9/11, and most recently, the Taliban's revival and takeover of the country are landmark events with implications that transcend Afghanistan’s borders.

The Taliban secured effective control of the country in the summer of 2021 with assurances that it would behave differently this time around. However, they quickly reneged on their promises.

On the bright side, apart from the occasional deadly terror attack by the Islamic State of Khorasan Province and the Taliban’s general brutality in governance, there has been an overall improvement in the security situation in general.

The Taliban have also banned poppy cultivation and slashed opium production by 95%.

But the good news ends there. Taliban rule continues to come at a painful cost for Afghan citizens.

AFP — Members of the Taliban security forces arrive as Afghan women march during a demonstration they call ‘Stop Hazara genocide’ a day after a suicide bomb attack at Dasht-e-Barchi learning centre, in Kabul on October 1, 2022.

Food insecurity

For starters, the Taliban is isolated, and the country is on the brink of economic collapse. According to the UN World Food Programme, 15.3 million Afghans face acute food insecurity, and 2.8 million Afghans face emergency-level food insecurity.

Severe climate shocks and natural disasters have added to Afghan suffering.

Afghanistan is largely dependent on foreign aid for survival, but there is understandably not much appetite in the international community to contribute due to the Taliban takeover.

Afghanistan is largely dependent on foreign aid for survival, but there is understandably not much appetite in the international community to contribute due to the Taliban takeover.

Women's rights curtailed

Social life is largely non-existent, and marginalised groups are targeted.

Women's rights have also been severely curtailed. Afghan girls cannot attend school beyond grade 6, and women are barred from public spaces and most forms of employment.

The report of the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan, which was presented on 24 October to the General Assembly, has documented the deteriorating situation, including the "severe and unparalleled attack on women's and girls' rights".

The Taliban's treatment of women has been referred to as "gender base apartheid".

Miriam Martincic — Since the Taliban came to power in August 2021, speculation has been rife that women's rights would be curtailed. That fear came true in December 2022, when girls' education was officially banned.

Dictatorship

As to the way of Taliban governance, Taliban leader Hebatullah Akhunzada has monopolised power. He sits in his power base in his native Kandahar and runs the country through personal commissars in individual ministries who monitor and report on the conduct of individual ministers.

He has been able to sideline the previously influential Kandaharis, such as Baradar and Yaqoob, and the militant Haqqanis.

A former diplomat who spent an important part of his career in Afghanistan in different capacities has described Akhunzada as having morphed into a version of the bad-tempered and power-hungry Ashraf Ghani, the last president of Afghanistan before the takeover, who was one of the first to flee.

Refugee outpour

Wars, economic instability, food crises, deteriorating human rights and women's rights, and natural disasters have driven many Afghans to seek a new life in neighbouring countries and abroad, including Turkey and other countries in Europe.

The Islamic Republics of Iran and Pakistan, as well as Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, have been hosting hundreds of thousands of Afghans for decades.

Pakistan, which is said to be hosting 4 million Afghans, is trying to reduce their numbers, blaming Afghans for many problems, including terror attacks by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan.

Reuters — Marwa, 18, teaches her sisters and brother, while staying at a rented house and waiting for their special visa created by Western governments to protect the Afghans, in Rawalpindi, Pakistan August 7, 2023.

In October, the Pakistani government announced that Afghans—about half of the estimated total of 4 million— not carrying a government-approved document that makes them eligible to stay will be deported.

According to the reports of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), some hundreds of thousands have already been subjected to deportation.

Whether Afghanistan can care for returnees and whether they will be safe remains to be seen.

Wars, economic instability, food crises, deteriorating human rights and women's rights, and natural disasters have driven many Afghans to seek a new life in neighbouring countries and abroad.

UN normalisation proposal

Former Turkish Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioğlu, appointed as the Special Coordinator by the UN Secretary-General, presented his eagerly anticipated independent assessment of a possible way forward on Afghanistan in December.

The report has been well-received in New York, with the Security Council favouring his balanced approach.

It is based on a conditional normalisation of relations in return for measurable progress by Kabul on a proper assumption and implementation of its treaty obligations, especially concerning women's rights on education, employment and travel, on the one hand, and inclusive government embracing all strata of Afghan life in its myriad ethnic, sectarian, social and linguistic manifestations, on the other.

The de facto authorities in Kabul have long resisted such overtures, demanding the termination of travel restrictions, the return of Afghanistan's strategic reserves, and diplomatic recognition.

But in some respects, the report presents an opportunity for the Taliban. Should they choose to do so, they could present the report to their public and hardline clerics as the compromise deal it really is.

AFP — A Taliban military parade on a main street in Kabul to celebrate the second anniversary of the withdrawal of US forces.

Barring some last-minute horse-trading by Russia and China on matters unrelated to Afghanistan, the Security Council could approve the report soon.

The Taliban may have changed in some ways, but the essence is clearly the same. The international community still despises the Taliban, which, in turn, dislikes and is distrustful of the West.

Afghans, in general, are distrustful. With the chaotic withdrawal of the US and its allies in 2021, they have learned the hard way how easy it is to be abandoned.

Overall, there is not much room for optimism for Afghanistan in 2024.

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