Sweida protests: Al-Assad clamps down elsewhere to stem wider revolt

This tactic was initially observed on 24 August in Wadi Barada, where several villages, including Deir Qanoun, Deir Maqran, Kfeir al-Zayt, Souq Wadi Barada, al-Husseiniya, and Burhelia, faced these measures just one day after calls for civil disobedience and a general strike.

Following the deployment of military reinforcements, including heavy machine guns, artillery, and tanks, the localities faced threats of being stormed, citing the presence of Islamic State (IS) cells as a pretext.

Carrot and stick approach

In a pattern that has become all too familiar, the regime employed a carrot-and-stick approach. Individuals wanted by the regime were given the option of participating in a "reconciliation" process, also known as settlements, in exchange for refraining from escalating actions against them or their towns.

This same strategy, encompassing both coercive and conciliatory measures, was subsequently applied to varying degrees in other areas, including Kanakir, Zakia, and Babila.

The specific terms of these "reconciliations" typically vary from one area to another, but all served the regime's goal of enhancing its security control over areas classified as "hot" or "unsafe" by security agencies to prevent the spread of protests.

Security forces have also intensified their patrols and set up checkpoints in other cities surrounding the capital, such as Yalda and Qudsaya, in response to the distribution of anti-regime pamphlets.

Likewise, the regime is reportedly working to establish a security cordon by deploying checkpoints around eastern Aleppo. This region, which had a history of opposing the regime during the conflict, has recently witnessed protests against al-Assad.

This has raised concerns about the potential resurgence of conflict in the area. In response, the security branches in the city have been reportedly instructed to mobilise various militias to address this situation.

Over 100 people in Aleppo were also reportedly arrested on charges related to their involvement in demonstrations or their criticism of the regime.

In the provinces of Latakia and Tartus, calls for demonstrations have reportedly increased the regime's security presence on the streets. Besides, local sources accused the regime of detaining at least 70 individuals to date to prevent any protests in areas considered key regime strongholds.

Pressure cooker tactics

While Sweida has remained under regime control throughout the conflict, local armed groups have emerged to protect their communities from various threats, including those posed by the regime itself.

Sweida's local communities are not only well-armed but also closely bound by strong social and religious ties. Historically, these bonds have proven instrumental in swiftly resolving differences and rallying against external foes.

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With no apparent concessions to offer Sweida's protestors, there are growing concerns that Syrian security forces might resort to a crackdown.

However, the regime is fully aware that the use of force to suppress the protests carries the risk of transforming peaceful demonstrations into a widespread armed resistance movement, potentially extending beyond the governorate.

Despite their symbolic importance in undermining its authority, Sweida's protests don't currently threaten al-Assad's survival. This is partly due to their peaceful nature and the remote location of the governorate.

Hence, instead of opting for escalation, the regime seems to be implementing a long-term strategy. Damascus has significantly reduced government services in these regions, adding considerable challenges to the daily lives of residents.

The hope behind this move is that the increased burden will eventually lead to fatigue or division among them, potentially quelling their protests.

It remains to be seen if the regime's tailored approach will enable it to weather the ongoing wave of protests. However, the current situation underscores a critical point: despite the immense suffering endured by Syrians throughout the conflict, their losses are unlikely to deter them from demonstrating once more if they cannot provide for their families.

Hence, until substantial change is implemented, new waves of unrest are likely to persist.