The floundering of ousted Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan, after his last attempt to dodge the political opposition, which tried for a week to impeach his government was not the first failure of its kind in the life of Pakistani governments that did not shahbazcomplete their constitutional term of five years throughout the country's 75-year history. It was also the first time that a Pakistani premier loses office by a vote of no-confidence, in a process he did not accept. Khan did everything he could to stay in power after losing his parliamentary majority. He dissolved the parliament and called for elections. However, the Supreme Court ruled all his steps illegal, and ordered the parliament to hold a new session and vote to impeach him.
The said events confirm that there is a political custom that characterizes Pakistani governments, which is that the heads of these governments fail to complete their entire elected term. This holds a prophecy about the future of the new government formed by opposition leader Shahbaz Sharif, the 70-year-old leader of the Pakistan Muslim League. He was the PM of the Punjab region. His government will face many challenges internally and externally and will face of growing potential threats in light of the developments taking place at international and regional levels. These factors make the government prone to failure, whether in terms of completing the constitutional period scheduled until the next elections in 2023 or in renewing the confidence if it is able to complete that period and run for the next round.
In light of these two pathways, this report showcases the future of the Pakistani government that was formed by the opposition after successfully impeaching the former PM Imran Khan. This will be done through two themes as follows:
First – The new government and the challenges ahead … Long agenda:
It is not an exaggeration to say that the Pakistani reality, internally and externally, holds many risks that would face any government that would assumes responsibility, amidst growing challenges at the internal and external levels.
At the local level, there is a variation in the challenges that the new government must professionally handle. There are economic challenges, such as the increasing burden of foreign debt, which stands at $130 billion dollars and constitutes 43% of the gross domestic product. There are also the high inflation rate that exceeds 12%, as well as the weak national currency that is now valued at 190 rupees against the dollar, i.e. the currency lost nearly a third of its value since the ousted PM Imran Khan took office. As a consequence, a state of stagnation and economic instability has prevailed over the past three years, which created an economic crisis facing the new government. Muftah Ismail, one of the assistants of the new PM, who is likely to be Minister of Finance, was quite open about it when he said, "The new government faces the daunting task of managing a faltering economy with massive deficits... Imran Khan has left behind him a state of chaos."
The government also faces a political crisis, represented in the stance of Imran Khan's party members in parliament following the vote of no-confidence and the formation of the new government by the opposition leader. Shah Mahmood Qureshi, the former foreign minister and deputy chairman of Khan's party, declared in a speech before voting to elect a new PM: "We announce that we are all resigning." This has funneled the state into a new crisis over the future of these vacant seats. Is the government heading for complementary elections or early elections? Members of the "Insaf Movement" party, which Khan belongs to, hold 155 seats in the 342-seat parliament.
Each option poses challenges for the future of the new government and how it performs its tasks, especially if we take into account that Shahbaz Sharif won the parliament’s confidence by three votes more than half, as he secured 174 out of 342 votes in parliament, which holds the seeds of a political crisis that is expected to rekindle from time to time.
In addition to the aforementioned, the current government also faces security challenges related to the increasing threat of rebellion comprising extremist and terrorist movements. This represents a challenge whether in terms of dealing with such organizations on the one hand, and dealing with their threats and their repercussion on the economic and social conditions on the other hand.
Outside its borders, the government is faced with a complex and intertwined international situation due to the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, whose echoes have rippled inside Pakistan. Some believe that one of the repercussions of this war is the isolation of Prime Minister Imran Khan, who angered the United States and the West because of his proximity to Moscow. This was evident in his visit to Moscow on the same day that Russia launched its military operation against Ukraine. Therefore, the incoming government is burdened with adjusting the compass of Islamabad’s relation with Washington in light of the deterioration in the relations between the two countries lately. The marks of this fallout could be seen in the military situation in Pakistan, as the USA is a major supplier of arms.
Therefore, the next government is responsible for working on fixing the deteriorating relationship with Washington on the one hand, and maintaining its proximity to Beijing on the other hand. The latter step comes after Imran Khan’s government saw tension between the two countries regarding the common economic corridor included in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The new government is therefore required to work on resolving differences in the relationship with Beijing. In a clearer sense, the new government needs a vision that is able to move with great care in the course of its foreign policy at the regional and international levels in order to preserve its national security and not involve it in any burdening alliance that it cannot withstand amidst the internal crises.
It is worth noting that the external challenges have not been limited to this matter only. The crisis in neighboring Afghanistan, with Taliban coming to power following the sudden US withdrawal from Afghanistan represents another challenge facing the new government. The pace of Taliban’s operations is expected to increase. The movement threatened to launch a large-scale attack on the government forces during the month of Ramadan, which will exacerbate the internal situation on the one hand, and escalate the level of tension between the two neighboring countries on the other hand.
The thorny relations with neighboring India represent another challenge for the new government. The two countries witnessed some tension during Imran Khan’s government. Bilateral trade between Islamabad and New Delhi had previously been suspended after India attempted to consolidate its authority in the region it controls in Kashmir. Khan was also a vocal critic of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to the extent that Khan called for an international move to end what he described as "genocide" in the disputed region.
Second – The new government and the search for a different approach:
Amidst all the said challenges and potential threats facing the Pakistani government both internally and externally, there is an urgent need for searching for a different approach to how the government should manage its economic, security, military and external affairs. In this regard, it is worth emphasizing the importance of adopting a multi-dimension approach, which can be summarized as follows:
On the economic level. The new PM wanted to assume his responsibility by attempting to improve the economic conditions of citizens. He made his first decisions to raise the minimum wage for government employees to PKR25,000, as of April 1. This step with its seemingly positive effect has a negative layer in its content – the incomes of Pakistanis who are not working in the government remained unchanged without an increase. On one hand, the hike in the incomes of government employees may push the general level of prices upward, which places more burden on Pakistani citizens. On the other hand, this increase represents an additional burden on the Pakistani public budget, which is groaning from an increasing deficit that carries a risk of rising inflation rates. Therefore, the step taken by the PM, which came within the framework of the new government’s attempt to win the loyalty of the government apparatus, needs to reconsider its repercussions so as not to exacerbate the economic crisis.
The government of Shahbaz Sharif needs to work on more than one path, starting with maximizing remittances to Pakistani expatriates. Remittances have seen an unprecedented high rate during the last period. There is also the need to resume talks with the International Monetary Fund, which were suspended before the seventh review of the $6 billion rescue program that was agreed upon in July 2019.
On the political level, there is on one hand a need to start implementing confidence-building measures and political reconciliation between various political parties competing for power. On the other hand, the government should work to improve its relations with the military, as the relations between the Muslim League party led by Nawaz Sharif and its ally, the Pakistan People's Party, witnessed tension with the military due to their criticism of its interference in political life. Therefore, the new government must work on rebuilding these relations so that they do not clash with the military and its vision if it moves unilaterally.
On the security level, confronting the Pakistani Taliban is a top priority for the new government. It must work on restoring stability in Baluchistan. Pakistan’s largest state has been suffering from political turmoil for several years due to sectarian conflicts. There also the insurgents demanding more autonomy and a greater share of the rich wealth enjoyed by this state, where there are natural resources and minerals.
On the external level. Shahbaz Sharif is expected to reboot his country’s relations with the USA, with Washington welcoming him to power. White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki stressed: “The United States is committed to the long-term partnership with Pakistan, which holds vital importance for Washington." At the same time, the new government will also be keen on strengthening its relations with China. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian stated: "The changes taking place in the Pakistan’s political scene will not affect the overall situation of China-Pakistan relations." It is noteworthy that Shahbaz Sharif had announced after his election that his government would accelerate infrastructure projects in Pakistan supported by Beijing.
Nonetheless, the future of Pakistan's relations with India remains the most prominent step in the Pakistani foreign policy agenda. The relation between the two countries is expected to witness an understanding in the upcoming period. This was evident in what Shahbaz Sharif said in response to the congratulatory message he received from Modi on the occasion of his selection: "Pakistan desires peaceful and cooperative relations with India. The peaceful settlement of outstanding disputes, including Jammu and Kashmir, is indispensable." This rapprochement is reinforced by the history of the relationship between the Sharif family, from which the elected PM comes from, and India. Sharif visited India in 2003 when he was the PM of Punjab, during which he met the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other officials in New Delhi.
On the other hand, his Indian counterpart Modi attended the wedding of a member of the Sharif family. Modi also made a surprise trip to Pakistan in 2015, a year after taking office, where he was received by Sharif's older brother Nawaz, who was then PM. Therefore, India views Shahbaz Sharif's government as a conciliatory government that is ready to settle differences through dialogue rather than confrontation.
To sum it up, the coming days, along their challenges and crises, constitute a very difficult test for Sharif. Either he will succeed and pass the test, or he will face the same fate that befell his successor and his peers who preceded him. The matter remains dependent on the extent of his ability to build political alliances at home, and rearrange his country's relations abroad in a way that supports him in traversing the severe economic crisis, the increasing security threats, and the escalating political conflicts.
