In an interview with Foreign Policy, the famed political scientist Francis Fukuyama revisits his view of liberal democracy as the end of ideological progression. He reveals that “the end of history may not be one form of government, but it may be the eternal return to the same,” noting that we have tried all the different variants, from democratic to authoritarian governments. In his theory, the end of history is “a perpetual recycling through these different variants,” rather than pushing for a new kind of society. Still, he doesn’t think those variants are stable.
The violent events that erupted at the US capitol on January 6 reflect the power of identity politics driven by resentment which Fukuyama anticipated as a hindrance to democracy in his book, Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment. However, he thinks that a transition has taken place from polarization based on political issues to a polarization that pivots on identity affiliations.
Fukuyama also refers to new kinds of loyalties based on “crazy conspiracy theories.” Though he says it is not unique to Trump, he admits that when a US president promotes these theories, they are difficult to contain. In a way, he acknowledges the significance of some outstanding Republicans parting with Trump and America’s corporations standing against him. Fukuyama describes the impact of suspending the former President’s Twitter account saying, “He really knew how to feed that beast regularly. Once it gets starved of that kind of fuel, I think the phenomenon could weaken…. That’s an important guardrail that will help marginalize them.”
As for the effect of polarization on the survival of democracy, Fukuyama says: If you have a decisive electoral defeat or a series of electoral defeats or a series of defeats, where Republicans going down this route just isn’t going to snowball into something bigger, then have to reassess.”
“And frankly, going from holding the presidency and both houses of Congress to holding none of those institutions is not a success. As they start thinking about the future, that’s got to sink in. I probably shouldn’t say this for attribution, but in a certain way that change isn’t going to happen without even more overreaching,” he said
Talking about a new form of authoritarianism that “figured out a way to political power”, the political philosopher recalls former Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi as one of its most prominent figures to gain political power by combining political power with economic power. As for Trump, his “Berlusconi formula” was to “control the narrative” through his TV station Fox News, then his social media platforms. Hence, most of his supporters think Trump legitimately won, and all they are doing is defending American ideals.
Asked about the fate of populism driven by theories of conspiracies, Fukuyama hopes this wave will weaken, and points out to Trump being “de-platformed” by social media companies, warning that “society has to regain control of such a powerful technology that shapes media consciousness”.
On the international system and the expectation that countries such as China and Russia could change, Fukuyama says that realistically the strongest power sets the rules. “That’s exactly what the United States did… (and) there’s absolutely no reason to think the Chinese won’t do that,” by trying to “infiltrate” every international institution, he said.
Fukuyama admits the Chinese are doing that within the existing world system, but they will ultimately have the ability to use these organizations to serve their own interests. Eventually, something can be done about setting standards and their ability to reach societies in the West.
As he previously said in a Foreign Affairs article, Fukuyama believes that the covid-19 crisis has uncovered the “weaknesses” of institutions. In the interview, he explains that effective responses greatly depend on politics. In contrast to countries that “hold onto (social) consensus” and trust, those which are polarized “are not going to do well”. He believes that Biden is lucky as the vaccine rollout has already begun, which will help with the economy and strengthen his legitimacy. Still, he says, polarization will not consequently recede.
