Yemenis gather on the site of a suicide car bombing at the security headquarters in Yemen's southern city of Aden on December 31, 2013. (AFP/Getty Images)[/caption]While Yemen continues to make headway when it comes to its transition of power, having already successfully completed the most sensitive stage of its institutional overhaul through its National Dialogue Conference, Al-Qaeda remains a poisonous thorn in the side of the impoverished nation, forever cancelling out government efforts to rout Islamic radicalism and insecurity.
Already dubbed the most dangerous branch of the terror group in the region, the Yemeni cells of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have proven to be not only relentless in their attacks against Yemen’s military and intelligence services, but also extremely resourceful in their strategy and ability to mobilize firepower. No longer just a terror group, since 2011 AQAP has managed to grow into a movement with regional traction.
Al-Qaeda has worked to merge its ideology and political goals with those of other dissident groups in Yemen, with the aim of creating a tight network of alliances across the country at a time when existing loyalties and political alliances have broken down. A country in transition, Yemen remains in a state of political limbo, something Al-Qaeda understands as presenting it with a historic opportunity.
It is crucial to grasp the fact that Al-Qaeda’s leadership in Yemen no longer seeks solely to destabilize the government or promote Islamic radicalism; rather, it wants to establish itself as a political entity. Having outgrown its roots as a terror network, Al-Qaeda now seeks to sabotage Yemen’s transition of power by whatever means necessary in order to promote division and unrest ahead of a planned takeover. Ultimately, Al-Qaeda wants to establish itself as a sovereign state at the very heart of the Arabian Peninsula, a region that carries much significance both religiously and geo-strategically.
When looking at Al-Qaeda’s systematic targeting of Yemen’s economic and military interests, a pattern emerges. For one, the terror group has been keen to concentrate its efforts against the state in areas where it knows Sana’a has limited pull—Yemen’s Southern provinces.
The fact that several of Al-Qaeda’s most active cells are in Yemen’s Southern provinces is not pure chance; rather it is part of a plan. Security and political analysts already often warn that Al-Qaeda will attempt to broker an agreement with some of the most radical outshoots of Al-Hirak—Yemen’s Southern secessionist movement—to carry its agenda forward, and is keen to establish a solid popular base. In the light of aggravated tensions in the provinces of Al-Dhale and Hadhramaut, the idea of an alliance between the two factions would prove a deadly combination.
Now numerically strong in southern Yemen, Al-Qaeda has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that it is capable of dealing deadly blows to the state’s military apparatus. Who could forget December’s attack on Yemen’s Ministry of Defense, when Al-Qaeda launched a daylight attack on the ministry’s headquarters in the very heart of Sana’a?
Ever since, the terror group has been relentless in its targeting of the military, keen to erode soldiers’ morale as it seeks to carve a new geographical zone of influence, just as it did back in 2012 in the Southern province of Abyan.
In hindsight, Abyan appears now to have been something of an experiment, a training ground for Al-Qaeda’s leadership as it works to perfect its plan to establish itself as a viable political and institutional entity at the heart of Yemen’s most restive regions.
Al-Qaeda also has Yemen’s oil and gas industry in its sights. The terror group understands that much of Yemen’s resolve would crumble should its economy collapse. Already standing on the verge of a financial precipice, Yemen is in no position to weather another economic blow, especially where its natural resources are concerned.
While a minor oil and gas producer in comparison to its giant of a neighbor, Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s national budget relies almost entirely on its oil and gas industry to balance its books and keep its foreign currencies reserves afloat.
More worrying still, Al-Qaeda’s movements are increasingly pointing south, towards the seaport of Aden. As reported by Yemen intelligence services, the terror group is believed to have already established several dormant cells in and around the former South Yemen capital.
Early in January, Al-Qaeda made its presence felt when it claimed responsibility for an attack against a police compound. At the time, the group issued a stern statement in which it clearly announced its new policy—territorial expansion toward Aden. The statement said: “Those blessed operations against . . . the security [headquarters] in Aden are only a warning message to this puppet government and its army of mercenaries.”
All views expressed in this blog post are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, The Majalla magazine.
