From its hosting of US naval forces to its accession to the Abraham Accords, there are many reasons why Iran sees Manama as a justifiable target, but the shared animosity dates back decades
While it could be tied to military calculations related to the current US-Iran war, it also reflects a deeper struggle between two opposing regional visions
Tehran prioritises foreign power and influence, whereas the Gulf states prioritise economic development and stability. The presence of foreign bases in the Gulf is just an excuse.
Tehran has emerged from the US-Iran war more willing to take risks, less constrained by fears of escalation, and more convinced military pressure can yield results
Working with Israeli, Turkish, and US firms, Rabat is also aiming to build its own domestic defence-industrial capacity using its expertise in aerospace manufacturing
Netanyahu continues to defy calls from Washington to pump the brakes on Israel's offensive in Lebanon, something Iran has linked to a future peace deal
Legislation to fund the American military and intelligence services will include requirements that Israeli defence firms be involved in sensitive projects and that classified information be shared
Even if diplomatic progress continues, the Strait could be closed again. As a result, the geopolitical risk premium attached to Gulf energy exports is unlikely to disappear entirely.