US-IRAN RELATIONS WORSEN
The outbreak of coronavirus has prompted unprecedented health and economic crises in both the US and Iran. But while the crisis could have provided Tehran and Washington an opportunity to cooperate against a common foe, the hostility and mistrust between them has proven too wide to bridge. Despite the disasters, both countries are escalating their years-long conflict which been more or less static since the killing of General Qasem Soleimani by the United States and the strike targeting Iraq’s Ain al-Asad military base by Iran in response.
Iran says that US sanctions have impeded its ability to import equipment vital for controlling the pandemic but the US frequently reiterates that the sanctions exempt the sale of medicine and medical devices.
Before the virus, sanctions had already cost Iran about $200 billion in revenue, mainly from decimated oil sales, and devalued the currency by half in the past two years. Economists said the coronavirus would shrink Iran’s GDP by a third and create at least a $10 billion budget deficit this year.
Thus, a broad campaign was started to call for removing sanctions. This collective effort included Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif writing a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres; Iranian President Hassan Rouhani issuing a message to the people of America; 235 Iranian artists writing a letter to their global counterparts; and Iranian activists, scholars and intellectuals — many of whom are based abroad and part of the opposition to the Iranian state — writing to Trump. In another sign of desperation, Iran made its first request to the International Monetary Fund since the 1960s – asking for a $5 billion emergency loan.
But the Trump Administration has been unequivocal: the spread of the virus will not save it from the US sanctions. Secretary of State Mike said in a tweet that Iran’s “concerted effort to lift U.S. sanctions isn’t about fighting the pandemic. It’s about cash for the regime leaders.” He has accused Iran’s leaders of “trying to avoid responsibility for their grossly incompetent and deadly governance.” When Zarif accused the United States of waging “medical terror,” the State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus tweeted “Stop lying,” adding, “It’s not the sanctions. It’s the regime.”
If anything, the US has doubled down, imposing fresh sanctions in March, even as it offered Iran medical aid to help combat the pandemic, which Iran refused, claiming that the virus was “created by America,” despite there being no scientific proof offered anywhere to support such claims.
"I do not know how real this accusation is but when it exists, who in their right mind would trust you to bring them medication?" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, adding: "possibly your medicine is a way to spread the virus more." He also alleged the virus "is specifically built for Iran using the genetic data of Iranians, which they have obtained through different means".
EUROPE BYPASSES US SANCTIONS
But Iran’s plea is gaining traction elsewhere, winning support from allies like Russia and China, but also the European Union and the UK.
The EU donated $22 million in humanitarian aid to Iran in March to help it fight the outbreak in its first use of the E3 financial mechanism set up last year. The “E3” (France, Germany and the UK) conceived the Instex trade channel to help European countries save a landmark international nuclear deal with Tehran after President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the agreement in 2018. But the European states have struggled for more than 12 months to launch the mechanism in the face of technical challenges and fierce opposition from Washington.
The EU also said it will support request from Iran’s Central Bank for IMF financial help. This could create further friction with the US administration which has said it is seeking to block the request because the Iranian Central Bank is under US sanctions and is known for financing Iran's destabilising activity.
The US also said that “any nation considering humanitarian assistance to Iran should seek the release of all dual and foreign nationals” from Iranian prisons. But the UK has taken a less stringent approach not by making the release of all its dual nationals a precondition for aid.
Intensive discussions between Iran and continental Europe over the coronavirus crisis have run in parallel with talks over the release of prisoners such as Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, raising hopes of a narrow opening for a diplomatic breakthrough. Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian aid worker, has had her temporary leave from prison extended and is being considered for clemency. British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said that while this is a welcome step, the UK government now urges the Iranian government to “release all UK dual nationals arbitrarily detained in Iran, and enable them to return to their families in the UK.”
REGIONAL HUMANITARIAN OUTREACH
Another possible diplomatic opening created by the crisis has been in expressions of support with Iran from some unexpected sources. The UAE and others in the region have shown that, whatever the existing political tensions with Iran, the current global health crisis is not a competition and cannot be fought in isolation.
The UAE has twice facilitated flights for the World Health Organisation (WHO) to deliver medical supplies and WHO experts to help 15,000 healthcare workers. Kuwait has also announced that it will donate $10 million to Iran while Qatar has sent masks and hygiene products, demonstrating that GCC countries have, temporarily at least, put aside its tense diplomatic relations with Iran to instead prioritise the urgent humanitarian crisis.
The Emirati foreign minister had a rare phone conversation with his Iranian counterpart in which he stressed ‘the importance of collective work and efforts to survive such global challenges’. Another significant step was a tweet from Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Seyed Abbas Mousavi, that appeared to suggest the UAE’s actions could lead towards a possible softening of bilateral relations. Mousavi applauded the UAE, as well as Uzbekistan and the United Nations’ UNICEF, for their support: ‘My country is sincerely thankful for these humanitarian efforts and will never forget the way they stood with Iran in hard times’.
Such aid and communication efforts are important and unprecedented in recent years between the long-standing regional adversaries. But while Iran declared on April 6 that its coronavirus coordination with UAE has further improved both countries’ ties, Tehran would need to dramatically change its regional policies as a prerequisite for the Emirati COVID-19 medical aid to signal the opening of a much-needed diplomatic dialogue for reducing tension in the region.
