Lebanon Protests: Hezbollah’s Losses and Advantages 

More than two months into the Lebanon Protests, and after many attempts by Hezbollah to bring back their favorite candidate – Saad Hariri – to form a government, Hezbollah finally decided to take the risky route and nominate Hassan Diab the next prime minister. 

Diab came by the votes of Hezbollah and allies only, signaling a very radical move to the international community, the day that US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale arrived in Beirut. 

HEZBOLLAH’S MANEUVERS 

Hale reportedly told officials in Lebanon that his country is going to withhold aid to Lebanon if Hezbollah gets ministerial seats or indirectly controls the new government. He also relayed a firm message to officials regarding the position of Lebanon in the region, and reiterated persistence of US sanctions against Hezbollah and Iran and that the Lebanese state must distance itself from the party.

During his two-day visit to Beirut last week, the US diplomat said Washington is ready to help Lebanon “but can do so only when Lebanon's leaders undertake a credible, visible and demonstrable commitment to reform.”

Despite the controversy of his meeting with foreign minister Gebran Bassil, Hale’s message remained firm and consistent: Lebanon will not be bailed out by the international community unless a credible government is formed and reforms are implemented.
 
So why did Hezbollah decide to take the controversial route?

Some believe that Hariri is still Hezbollah’s favorite candidate, and that nominating Diab was a maneuver to scare both the Lebanese street and the international community of what an alternative to Hariri would look like. Eventually, Hezbollah will drop Diab – when everyone starts feeling the economic and security consequences of his nomination – and eventually accept Hariri as a compromise to maintain stability and hope for financial assistance.
For Hezbollah, Diab’s nomination, which came without any substantial Sunni cover, will lead to two problems: dividing the protestors, and planting the seeds of a Sunni-Shia rift, as the Sunni community will take to the street with a sectarian rhetoric against the nomination of Diab. And that’s exactly what happened, threatening the non-sectarian and peaceful rhetoric of the Lebanese protests. 

It is too early to judge whether this plan will work or not, but it is clear that Hezbollah has suffered many losses along the way. 

WHAT DID HEZBOLLAH LOSE?

First, Hezbollah lost credibility. 

In his first speech after the October 17 revolution, Hezbollah’s chief Hassan Nasrallah promised his audience that the government will never resign. A few days later, the government resigned. Nasrallah also instead that Bassil’s party – The Free Patriotic Movement - will be represented in the next government. A few days later, Bassil was asked to withdraw, which he did, but also refused to nominate Hariri. Hariri could not get the nomination – as Hezbollah desired – so he withdrew, and Hezbollah was forced to name Hassan Diab, who can never gain the trust of the street and the international community. 

Hezbollah has been insisting on a government that combines politicians and technocrats. However, and based on Diab’s recent statements, the next government will include only technocrats and specialists. Of course these do not have to be independent technocrats and specialists, and they can still – in a technocratic manner - serve Hezbollah’s agenda, but it is still a step back from Hezbollah’s original ask.
 
Second, Hezbollah lost popular support. 

In a matter of two months, Hezbollah’s image shifted from being the protector of Lebanon to the enemy of Lebanon. These protests are about economic reforms and against corruption. All Hezbollah did was protect its corrupt political allies, such as Gebran Bassil and Speaker Nabih Berri, in addition to fight the formation of any credible and capable government that can save Lebanon rom the upcoming financial meltdown and bankruptcy. 

The Lebanese, including many within the Shia community, today see Hezbollah as the main hindrance that is blocking Lebanon from moving forward and in the right directions. 

Third, Hezbollah isolated itself further. 

Despite Gulf and US pressure on Hezbollah and its access into Lebanon’s state institutions, Hezbollah managed to keep a more or less friendly relationship with European states, mainly France and Germany, where Hezbollah has not been completely designated as a terrorist organization. 

However, with its latest maneuver and the violent and aggressive methods it used against the protestors, Hezbollah managed to lose on two fronts: 
One, the international community reached a consensus during the Paris meeting. This consensus certainly does not suit Hezbollah and its allies as they realized that the meeting called for reforms and anti-corruption measures that can only be achieved by an independent and credible government. 
Two, Germany’s parliament adopted a motion last Thursday urging the government to ban Hezbollah from operating in the country. According to the Wall Street Journal, the motion was initiated by lawmakers in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc and backed by the center-left Social Democrats—the junior partner in her coalition—with support from some opposition representatives. Government officials said the broad backing made it likely the government would act on the motion early next year.

Accordingly, all Hezbollah’s activities, including fundraising, will be banned in Germany. The motion also called on Berlin to lobby other European countries to no longer treat Hezbollah separately from its military wing, which is already mostly banned from operating in Europe. 

Fourth, Hezbollah will be blamed for the economic collapse of the State. 

Hezbollah had the choice to step back and make compromises, allow for a new government to be formed to deal with the economic disaster and reforms, gain the trust of the international community, and save Lebanon from total bankruptcy. 

However, Hezbollah decided to hang on to power and refuse to let go. Instead of listening to the streets, it preferred to listen to its corrupt political allies, and its sponsors in Tehran. 

Eventually, as the economy deteriorates and the people start feeling its repercussion on their daily life and living standards, Hezbollah will be at the core of people’s complaints and anger. There is no going back from there. 

Looking forward, there are a number of scenarios, but one thing remains clear: Lebanon is heading towards real collapse and no one will save it. And Hezbollah knows that. Another thing that is clear is that Hezbollah has already made many compromises and they will continue to make compromises if international pressure and consensus continue. 
 
Hanin Ghaddar is the inaugural Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute.