America rushes to ally's side after 'Israel's 9/11'

Iranian statement of support

Immediately after news of the Hamas onslaught against Israeli targets in southern and central Israel emerged on Saturday morning, Iran quickly declared its support for the militants, with the Iranian foreign ministry saying that the attacks were an act of self-defence by the Palestinians.

"This operation is the spontaneous movement of resistance groups and Palestine's oppressed people in defence of their inalienable rights and their natural reaction to the Zionists' warmongering and provocative policies," a senior ministry official commented.

There were also jubilant scenes in the Iranian Majlis, with parliament members rising from their seats on Saturday to chant "Death to Israel" and "Palestine is victorious, Israel will be destroyed".

Iran's evident satisfaction with the Hamas operation has prompted speculation that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp was involved in helping Hamas military commanders plan the attack. However, Western intelligence officials have quickly pointed out they have no firm evidence directly linking Iran to the attacks.

Even so, the deepening crisis over Gaza, with Israeli forces reportedly planning to launch a ground offensive, has inevitably raised questions about Iran's support for Hamas and other militant groups in the region, such as Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

A major concern for Western policymakers is that Iran and its allies may want to escalate the crisis by launching their own attacks against Israel, thereby provoking a wider regional conflict.

Western support for Israel

After Israel suffered the worst terrorist attack in the country's history, one that has inevitably drawn comparisons with the September 11 attacks against the US in 2001, Western leaders have been quick to join the US in giving their backing to Israel. 

The leaders of the UK, US, France, Germany and Italy released a joint statement expressing their "steadfast and united support" for the state of Israel and "unequivocal condemnation" of Hamas.

The statement was released after a call between the UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak; the US president, Joe Biden; the French president, Emmanuel Macron; the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz; and the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni. Together, the five countries comprise the Quint international organisation.

"We make clear that the terrorist actions of Hamas have no justification, no legitimacy, and must be universally condemned," the statement reads. "There is never any justification for terrorism," the statement read.

Western backing for Israel, though, is not universally popular. In London, where the Israeli flag was projected onto the Houses of Parliament as a gesture of solidarity with Israel, crowds of protesters held pro-Palestinian demonstrations outside the Israeli Embassy and Downing Street, while there were reports of Israeli restaurants in the UK being attacked by Palestinian sympathisers.

Israeli brutality could reverse sympathies

The strong pro-Palestinian sentiments on display in London and elsewhere in Europe certainly show that Western support for Israel is not unconditional, and may quickly evaporate if, as many Palestinian leaders are predicting, Israel's military response to last weekend's attacks results in high numbers of Palestinian civilians.

The uncompromising response of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the Hamas attack has certainly raised concerns that Israeli forces will show no mercy if, as is widely predicted, the Israeli government launches a massive military ground offensive to seize control of Gaza and destroy Hamas.

Netanyahu has pledged to pummel Hamas positions, declaring that Israel's military response, which has already seen the Palestinian death toll exceed the number of Israelis killed by Hamas, will result in the Palestinians suffering even greater casualties.

"We have only started striking Hamas," Netanyahu said in an address late on Monday. "What we will do to our enemies in the coming days will reverberate with them for generations."

Apart from prompting an erosion of support in the West, any operation undertaken by Israel that results in heavy civilian casualties could prompt other actors in the region, especially Iran and its proxies in Lebanon and Syria, to become involved.

At that point, the conflict would have all the potential to escalate into a full-scale regional conflict — one that could have a lasting impact on the region's geopolitical landscape.