Politics

IS spectre disappears from Sinai for first time in decade

An IS victory in the Sinai would have dealt a devasting blow to international trade, given its strategic location for Red Sea and Suez Canal maritime traffic

AFP

A handout picture released by the Egyptian Presidency on July 4, 2015, shows Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (R) shaking hands with a security forces member during a visit to the Sinai Peninsula.

IS spectre disappears from Sinai for first time in decade

Amr Emam

last update on 01 Oct 2023

On 1 April this year, Egyptian President, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi proudly announced the defeat of a branch of the Islamic State (IS) in Sinai, following almost a decade of counter-terrorism operations by the Egyptian army.

In front of him was a massive line-up of construction equipment that took part in development projects in the northeastern Egyptian territory that shares borders with Israel and the Palestinian Gaza Strip.

"None other than the state will be allowed to possess arms," el-Sisi said emphatically to an audience of government officials, army commanders, MPs, and Sinai tribal chiefs east of the Suez Canal.

His remarks wind up almost a decade, during which Sinai, which comprises 6% of Egyptian territory, became a security threat to Egypt, the region and international trade.

This year, this region celebrates the anniversary of the 1973 October war victory over Israel, while terrorism is totally out of it, for the first time in 10 years.

End of an era

Neglected by successive Egyptian governments for decades, the Sinai was fertile ground for extremism to take root and grow.

This translated into an upsurge of terrorist attacks on Egyptian police, present in limited numbers in northern and central Sinai, especially after the 2011 ouster of Hosni Mubarak's regime.

These attacks were mainly staged by Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, a locally-grown group that became IS in November 2014.

Attacks by this group took many forms and ranged in ferocity from the most primitive to the most sophisticated.

AFP — Mourners pray for 11 soldiers killed in an attack claimed by IS in the Sinai Peninsula during a funeral at a mosque in the village Jazirat al-Ahrar, about 70 kilometres north of Cairo, on May 9, 2022.

In July 2015, hundreds of IS Sinai terrorists launched simultaneous attacks against 21 security positions in northern Sinai, killing dozens of troops.

The attacks were so terrifying that el-Sisi wore his military uniform and travelled to northern Sinai three days later to greet the troops who repelled the attacks.

The attacks gave insights into plans by the terrorist group to establish its own Islamic emirate in Sinai.

Neglected by successive Egyptian governments for decades, the Sinai was fertile ground for extremism to take root and grow. This translated into an upsurge of terrorist attacks on Egyptian police, present in limited numbers in northern and central Sinai, especially after the 2011 ouster of Hosni Mubarak's regime.

In November 2017, IS terrorists offered additional indications of their violent ideology by attacking Muslim worshippers inside a northern Sinai mosque, killing 305 people.

Having killed everybody inside the mosque, including 27 children, the terrorists attacked homes in the mosque's vicinity, leaving additional victims behind.

AFP — Egyptians mourn the killing of 11 soldiers killed in an attack claimed by IS in the Sinai Peninsula during a funeral at a mosque in the village Jazirat al-Ahrar about 70 kilometres north of Cairo, on May 9, 2022.

Wide-ranging effects

In 2018, the Egyptian army launched an all-out operation against IS terrorists in Sinai, deploying different types of arms and tens of thousands of troops in the territory for the first time since signing the Camp David Accords with Israel in 1978.

The military annexe of the accords envisions Sinai as a buffer zone between Egypt and Israel, thus limiting Egyptian equipment and personnel, especially in northern and central Sinai, to a minimum, a situation that caused non-state actors to grow and become a formidable threat over the years.

The operation, which underwent repeated modifications to cope with the changing tactics of the terrorists, succeeded in reducing IS Sinai to mere pits that failed to stage any significant attacks as of 2020.

Nonetheless, Egypt paid very dearly in its war against IS. Between 2013 and 2022, 3,277 army troops and policemen were killed and 12,280 others injured, some sustaining permanent disabilities, according to el-Sisi.

A victory by this terrorist group in Sinai would have had consequences with apocalyptic proportions for Egypt, the region and the world.

Apart from sharing borders with Israel and the Gaza Strip to the east, Sinai is bounded by the Gulf of Aqaba to the east, the Mediterranean to the north and the Suez Canal to the west.

IS terrorists tried to push westward from northern Sinai towards the Suez Canal several times over this past decade.

An IS foothold near the Suez Canal would have been catastrophic to global trade, around 12% of which annually transits the Suez Canal.

AFP — The British frigate HMS Portland heads through the Suez canal, in Ismailia, Egypt Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2008.

IS singled out Egyptian army troops and policemen for its attacks throughout its activity in Sinai.

Egypt paid very dearly in its war against IS. Between 2013 and 2022, 3,277 army troops and policemen were killed and 12,280 others injured, some sustaining permanent disabilities.

On many occasions, however, deteriorating security conditions in Sinai could have sowed the seeds of tension between Egypt and Israel.

Nevertheless, security and intelligence coordination between Cairo and Tel Aviv prevented such a scenario.

Two-pronged strategy

Security is not the only component of the Egyptian counterterrorism strategy in Sinai. The same strategy has a development aspect, too.

In the past decade, Egypt spent EGP750bn (roughly $24bn) on development in Sinai, according to Minister of Agriculture, al-Sayed al-Qoseir on 4 September.

Egypt wants to boost Sinai's population from 600,000 – less than 0.6% of Egypt's overall population of 105 million – to 3 million in the short term and 8 million by 2052.

To do this, it is developing all sectors of Sinai's economy, including agriculture, where the government offers farms and homes at discounted rates and long-term payment schemes.

Other projects in the Sinai include a vast road network, factories, seawater treatment plants, thousands of flats and homes, and dozens of schools and universities.

In developing Sinai, the government seems keen on avoiding past mistakes, including the economic marginalisation of Sinai's Bedouins and their stigmatisation.

Decades of economic marginalisation of the Bedouins exacerbated their alienation and made them feel like second-class citizens.

Nonetheless, el-Sisi praised Sinai's Bedouins repeatedly in the past years for standing at the forefront of the fight against terrorism.

The Egyptian leader even went the extra mile of prioritising Sinai's residents in the jobs the development projects implemented in Sinai create.

In developing Sinai, the government seems keen on avoiding past mistakes, including the economic marginalisation of Sinai's Bedouins and their stigmatisation.

Keeping Gaza in check

Egypt's counter-terrorism strategy also included destroying dozens of smuggling tunnels between Sinai and Gaza.

AFP — Egyptian soldiers inspect a smuggling tunnel in the divided border town of Rafah, along the border with the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, on November 4, 2014.

The plan to eliminate the tunnels was carried out by – among other moves – relocating hundreds of families from Rafah, a city on the border with Gaza, to a new residential community several kilometres away.

The network of smuggling tunnels between Gaza and Sinai was used to pump essential supplies into the Palestinian territory, including subsidised Egyptian fuel and food.

Following the 2011 downfall of the Muammar Gaddafi regime in Libya, the same network was used in the smuggling of arms, arriving from Libya through Egypt's joint border with the western neighbouring state, into Gaza.

IS Sinai also received fresh supplies of Salafist jihadist recruits from Gaza through the same network.

This network of smuggling tunnels provided the Gaza-ruling Hamas, an ideological offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, with piles of cash annually, turning into an essential part of Gaza's economy.

In May 2021, Egypt pledged $500mn for reconstruction projects in Gaza, giving hope to people in the densely populated Palestinian territory.

Deteriorating economic conditions in the coastal Palestinian enclave served the interests of extremist movements, which found among Gaza's disgruntled youth easy recruits.

Some of those recruits ended up within the ranks of IS in Sinai to fight the Egyptian army and police.

Nevertheless, this era has already ended and hopefully for good.

Egypt's decade-long counter-terrorism campaign and current development in Sinai promise to change its conditions altogether.

This change is closing the gates of hell for Egypt, the region and the world, which would have opened wide if terrorism had succeeded in bringing Egypt to its knees.

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