The March 2010 elections in Iraq will mark the second parliamentary election held in the republic’s history, and will determine who will lead the country through a period of transition and change after the American troops withdraw in 2011. With the expected election coming next week, the leadership of Iraq is genuinely contested.
As the leader of the strongest opposition coalition, Ammar al-Hakim has the potential to become the new power broker in Iraq, at the vibrant age of 38. Hakim is representative of a new brand of political leadership active in Iraqi politics today. He is a departure from the present Arab political elites in the region. His transition from purely a sectarian leader to an aspiring national leader reflects a wider departure from divisive identity politics in Iraqi politics. Remarkably, he has chosen to not even run in the new election as an individual candidate. His presence in the upcoming election’s cannot be ignored though, and any keen observer of Iraqi politics knows that a victory of his coalition will certainly lead to him becoming the most powerful man in Iraq.
Born in the Iraqi city of Najaf in 1971, Ammar al-Hakim experienced violence and tragedy at a young age. In 1979, after Saddam Hussein’s security services executed most of his extended family, the eight-year old Hakim, his father, Abdul Aziz, and his uncle, Mohammad Baqer, fled to Iran. Growing up in the new Islamic republic, Hakim was educated in Tehran, and in the holy city of Qom at the Islamic Arabic University. Hakim excelled in his studies, and showed a mastery of the Qur’an and Shiite religious texts. His oratory skills were noted as well with many people recollecting that from a very young age, Hakim recited prayers to tightly packed audiences in mosques and at holy festivals across Iran. After his graduation, Hakim began an academic and clerical career in Qom.
Hakim also became exposed to politics during his formative years in Iran. At the height of the Iran-Iraq war, his father and uncle established the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. This organization sought to establish a new Islamic Republic in Iraq and had support from the late Ayatollah Khomeini. Since that revolutionary period, the Council has moderated its outlook and rebranded itself as the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council.
With the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, Hakim and his father and uncle returned to Iraq in the early months of 2003 to help shape Iraq’s emerging political future. His uncle’s violent death in a car bombing in Najaf in August of 2003 was a terrible reminder of the challenges facing Iraq. Through the Supreme Islamic Council, Hakim and his father sought to mobilize the Shia community and consolidate their community’s position as the leading political voice in Iraq. It quickly grew to become the largest and one of the most influential Shia political party’s in Iraq.
Upon his arrival, Ammar al-Hakim witnessed the pain and suffering of the Shia community. In response, he established the Shaheed al-Mihrab Foundation to help address the absence of social services and economic support in his Shia homeland. Since its inception, it has constructed over 400 mosques in Iraq, and established a number of schools in his birthplace Najaf. Through offering social services and economic support to the Shia community, the Foundation has helped deepen and widen his support base.
With his father’s declining health, Hakim became the acting leader in May of 2007. At the time, he envisioned the future of Iraq largely through the lens of sectarian politics. He considered a Shia federation in the southern Iraq autonomous from Baghdad that would preserve the Shia community’s interests, and prevent Iraq from becoming a centralized state as the best possible future for the Shia community.
The provincial elections in January of 2009 were a shock to the party. His party lost voters to both Prime Minister Maliki’s Dawa Party and Sadr’s bloc of supporters. His campaign relied primarily on religious slogans and images of him and his father. It failed to draw the support he expected. The splitting of the Shia vote raised deep concerns about whether he and his father and their party could survive as a viable political force in the future.
In August of 2009, Hakim experienced a deep personal loss with the passing of his father. Questions emerged whether Hakim could keep the party unified. Quickly taking the reigns of the party, he staked out a new direction for his party. At his first press conference, he announced, “I call for the formation of a wide national front to include all lists and blocs and alliances of national powers in our country. With solidarity we can revive the political process and confront the big challenges inside Iraq at the regional level.”
This statement marked a shift in Hakim’s thinking. He concluded that the Shia community was tired of the violence and division that came with sectarian politics. These politics nearly brought Iraq to the point of a civil war in 2005. To compete in Iraqi politics, he needed to form a national coalition with a platform that addressed the needs of all Iraqis and would no longer give the impression that he sought to break apart Iraq.
With adept negotiation, Hakim formed the Iraqi National Coalition (INC) that presently includes his own party, Sadr’s bloc of supporters, and several Sunni and Kurdish parties to run in this month’s elections. The INC presently mounts a strong challenge to Maliki’s State of Law alliance. Learning a lesson from his last election campaign, he has focused his campaign on issues that concern all Iraqis such as the lack of reliable state services, and has made the move to promote a diverse set of new candidates in the election. His decision to not run as a candidate in the election reflects his belief that the party’s image should not be solely focused around him, but instead, a group of promising candidates. His active leadership of the INC and the Supreme Islamic Council clearly indicates that he plans to set and shape the direction and tone of the new government, if his coalition is elected. Hakim realizes he does not need to be Prime Minister to be Iraq’s power broker and leader.
In a recent interview with Arab News Hakim said, "We don't have a program of slogans. We have a practical program that depends on a clear foundation and has practical solutions to many of the problems faced by the people.” Emphasizing as well that the future of Iraq should rely on strong institutions, he stated, "There are two points of view when it comes to administration. There is the view of the strong man, or the strong institution that creates strong men ... We depend on the latter”.
Concerns exist in Washington that Hakim’s growing strength in Iraqi politics will lead to a more entrenched role for Iran in its neighboring country’s affairs. The US is even quietly funding and backing Maliki’s State of Law alliance in a hope to limit the chances of Iran gaining further influence with an INC victory. Viewing Hakim in this lens, too easily stereotypes him as an Iranian puppet. Even though he has long personal ties to Iran, Hakim has branded himself as an Iraqi leader first and foremost. He has also reached out to a number of Iraq’s neighbors including Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan. In an interview with Der Spiegel, he said, “Iraq will stand with its interests, and it is not in the interests of Iraq to take a side on the politics of the region. We wish to be friends with all regional and Arab countries, to which we feel a bond of Arab kinship.”
The upcoming elections will test the appeal of Hakim’s new brand of politics. Iraqi election analysts predict that his coalition, or at least his party, will likely have a place in the new government. If his coalition is elected, Hakim’s next challenge will be to lead the coalition in a way that encourages reconciliation and healing in Iraq after seven years of war and division.
