Recent flare-up shows why Deir ez-Zor is Syria's next flashpoint city

After the arrest, the Military Council and other Al-Khabil supporters rose up against the SDF. There were clashes in Tayyana, Shuhayl, Basira, Jadid Akidat, and Al-Azbah.

Reports put the number of people killed in confrontations over the last week at 55, including six civilians. Anti-SDF forces lost 34 fighters and 15 of their opponents were killed.

SDF denial

In an interview with Al Majalla, the SDF denied that Al-Khabil's detention sparked the trouble. Its spokesperson, Ferhad Shami, said it flared as the SDF was conducting a routine security campaign.

He said it was being carried out due to increased smuggling and an influx of weapons and fighters from areas controlled by the Damascus regime, including what he called "the spread of the phenomenon of drug smuggling".

Shami claimed that the fighting worsened because parties involved were convinced the SDF's security campaign would reveal their "connections with Syrian regime entities and Iranian factions," prompting them to incite turmoil and spread an atmosphere of chaos.

Some fighters were provided with specialised weapons, including anti-tank missiles, and were pushed to cross the river border between the two sides. They attacked the internal security points set up their own alternatives.

Shami denied that any confrontation came along Kurdish-Arab lines.  He pointed out that the SDF provides security in 127 towns and villages in the region and that the confrontations occurred in only four villages and a town, where there was incitement from the Damascus regime's agencies, and the clashes with his security forces involved only these elements.

He said the SDF will advance into the affected areas to restore order and control, at the request to local tribal leaders. Consent came from the Jabour, Bakara and Assayad tribes. Even Al-Khabil's Akidat tribe agreed

But Deir ez-Zor has never been fully at ease with SDF rule since it began there in 2019. The province has social characteristics that contrast with much of the rest of Syria, and it is mainly Arab, which can create a general unease toward the rule of the Kurdish SDF.

Al Majalla now looks at a potential flashpoint in a war-torn and factionalised country.

Longstanding tensions

The eastern countryside of the Deir ez-Zor has always been one of the most tense areas under SDF control. It was the last part of the country from which Daesh forces were ousted, from the town of Baghouz. Active cells from the terrorist group are still heavily present, despite continuous security operations from the SDF.

Some of the region's general population were also among the most resistant to the SDF's rule, holding protests against it and even setting up road blockades calling for ties with it to be cut.

After the SDF took control of the area, it established two governing groups. The Deir ez-Zor Military Council, to provide a security, was led from the outset by Ahmed Al-Khabil, the former Syrian opposition leader, also, known as Abu Khawla.

Then there was the Deir ez-Zor Civil Council, running the province's economic health and educational infrastructure, alongside other local services.

When this form of regional government was set up, there were widespread warnings over having two groups and objections to the way they reflected the civilian and tribal characteristics of the area.

Concerns were raised over Al-Khabil and his allies, not least over their control over the civilian administration. His Military Council wanted to expand its influence even further, by breaking free from the SDF.

It wanted to run the region under its own direct conrol, becoming an independent political and military force there, building relationships with international anti-terrorist forces stationed in the Koniko oil field to the north of the Deir ez-Zor province.

The Military Council was also thought to be seeking ties with the Damascus regime and Iranian factions in Syria. That stoked more ill feeling with the SDF.

As attacks on SDF checkpoints and other facilities in Deir ez-Zor increased recently, it accused the Military Council of "poor security management", pointing to the Euphrates smuggling operations and the arrival of fighters associated with the Damascus regime on the river's eastern bank.

Fractured tribal politics

The fresh tensions have highlighted the depth and influence of tribal and clan structures in Deir ez-Zor, especially in the countryside.

The Bakara and Akidat tribes, dispersed across various parts of the province, have strong internal solidarity and political inclinations toward self-governance in their areas.

And they form larger groups than in other provinces, such as Raqqa and Hasakah, where bonds are more family or clan based, and are also more localised.

But Deir ez-Zor's biggest tribe, the Akidat, covers more than half of the province's population. It is scattered along the rural expanses from the border with Iraq in the far east of Syria, near the city of Al-Bukamal, along the banks of the Euphrates River, stretching from the villages of Al-Hari, Khusham, and Al-Baghouz to the confluence of the Euphrates and Khabur rivers near the Al-Basira district.

Historically, the Akidat has been led by the Al-Hafal family, establishing strong internal ties and an outwardly militant disposition dating back to the Ottoman Empire.

But at the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011, the family was struck by internal disagreements and many leading figures left the tribe. Some of them allied with the SDF and the self-administered area in Syria's northeast. Others were closer to the Damascus regime, while some are aligned with the factions in the country that are loyal to Turkey.

Arabs and Kurds

Deir ez-Zor has had a prevailing Arab nationalist sentiment since the late 20th century. This is one of the most important factors influencing the current conflict and the difficulty the SDF has in reaching a consensus in the province.

Much of the local leadership, and many of the people, look at the SDF as a Kurdish military force occupying the area and reject its rule, seeking full control from their own groups.

The SDF rejects these divisions and asserts that thousands of members of Arab tribes have joined their ranks from various regions and provinces in northeastern Syria, including many from the Akidat and Bakara tribes.

It accuses some local leaders of "having ties with the security and political apparatuses of Syria, Iran, and Turkey."

Political implications

In an interview with Al Majalla, the researcher and writer Walid Julbi said that the politics in the Deir ez-Zor province are even more complex than they first appear.

The Damascus regime wants to weaken the SDF as much as possible. But it is also concerned about the implications of tribes becoming more powerful – even in areas not under its control – while its forces were targeted by tribes in the Manbij region.

Other parties have a range of nuanced political views over what is going on and what the wider implications may be.

While Turkey also favours a conflict between Arab tribes and the SDF, it is also apprehensive that this might lead to a resurgence of Daesh. That could also strain the relationship between the United States and the SDF.

Both Russia and the US look on the tension in Deir ez-Zor as a further sign that sustained security in Syria is unlikely without a full political solution. They reach the same conclusion over the anti-Damascus protests in Sweida province. There are even rising tensions in Turkish-administered areas .

Deadly confrontation

The confrontation is now concentrated in four towns where Al-Khabil loyalists have taken up positions in residential areas: Al-Dhibyan, Al-Shuhayl, Al-Basira, and Al-Azba.

SDF units are heading towards them, pledging restraint to ensure the "safety of civilians." But the SDF accuses the dissenters of looting institutions in the areas of the uprising.

Al Majalla spoke to residents who confirmed they remained confined to their homes for several days, within earshot of intense armed confrontations. They have also heard loudspeakers broadcasting calls for people to emerge from hiding and help counter the SDF.  

Tension spreads

There are signs that the tension is spreading. Numerous militia and tribal groups in regions under Turkish control have indicated they are ready to join offensives against the SDF, saying they are "supporting the fighters in Deir ez-Zor Province.

Some targeted the villages of Al-Muhsinli and Arab Hasan, situated to the east of the Manbij region, and successfully took control of a military position affiliated with forces from the Damascus regime in the area, prior to being subjected to airstrikes by Russian aircraft.

Turkish drones have also taken to the skies. There was a strike against a vehicle associated with the SDF on the route between Mabada and Al-Malikiyah, in Syria's far northeast. Local media also reported a Turkish drone attack on an SDF position in the village of Al-Tawila, near the city of Tal Tamr.

The SDF itself claims that these strikes may indicate coordination between the Damascus regime and Turkey.

What seems certain is that the situation on the ground in Deir ez-Zor and other parts of Syria are highly volatile and that more violence looms in this long-suffering and war-torn land.