Politics is the offspring of history, and history is the offspring of geography. The latter, however, stands unchanged, a fact that the Ukrainian President had not been aware of. He thought, with some encouragement from the West, that he is safe from the claws of the Russian bear. When the West gave up on Ukraine, he realized that geography was the only truth.
It was not only Ukraine that made the grave miscalculation. The West is no different, by still believing in the theory on the end of history put forward by the US Political Science Professor Francis Fukuyama. His theory grew popular for a while after the fall and disintegration of the Soviet Union – when the Russian bear got lost in Siberia’s frost, left along to lick its wounds and to witness its prowess shrinking. Nonetheless, the former Soviet Union countries kept orbiting around Russia for countless reasons that included force, geography, friendship or treaties. Take Ukraine for example, it gained independence from the Soviet Union and gave up its nuclear arsenal under the Budapest Treaty of December 1994, in exchange that the USA and Britain guarantee its protection and independence. Therefore, the nuclear weapons were in exchange for independence. As the poem goes, that the wolves have always encroached on those who have no dogs, Ukraine inevitably attempted to coexist with the Russians in a political manner that guarantees the independence of Ukraine and reassures the Russians. However, the eruption of the Orange Revolution began and the attempts to form an anti-Russian government provoked Moscow, but not to the extent of war. Then came the current Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who tried his luck with the Russian roulette, thinking he had the support of the West. He now stands with burnt fingertips having lost his country, and as a million Ukrainian refugees are heading for the hills.
Zelensky did not comprehend that his country is Russia’s backyard. His request to join the NATO was the straw that broke the Russian bear’s back and had it bare its fangs, pushing it to carry out an invasion similar to the US invasion of Grenada (Spice Islands). The invasion took place in October 1983, and it was carried out by a government loyal to Cuba and Russia. Despite the absence of a land border between the two countries, the USA used force majeure to preserve its vital space, and did the same in Afghanistan, Iraq and Panama. The world today stands on the edge of a nuclear war, all because of vague promises to join the NATO. Such a fruitless request, considering that the organization has turned into a semi-social club fit for toasts only. There are no longer alliances that can match it, like back in the days of the Communist Warsaw Pact. Most of its members failed to pay their due fees because of the economic crises and under the impression of the impossibility of another world war in ratification and application of the theory of the end of history.
History has a particular hidden feature, unknown to many, and that is that history’s path is not always guaranteed or even straight. Most of its premises do not indicate its results, especially in the case of unintentional mistakes that end up with mostly dangerous results that change the historical course, and sometimes, but rarely, with beneficial results, such as Alexander Fleming’s discovery of the antibiotics by pure chance.
However, as aforementioned, the catastrophic results are the most prevalent. The world after such incidents is no longer the same. Breeds grow extinct, and empires fall while others rise. The err may be the result of arrogance such as the Third Reich and Hitler’s adoption of the theory of racial purity. There is also Japan’s belief that its emperor is the descendant of the sun gods. Accordingly, these two countries were marginalized in World War II. Other times, the wrong decision could be taken at the wrong time, like in the case of Akhenaten's persecution of the priests of Amun for the sake of the sun god Aten, so Akhenaten and Aten left, and Amun and his priests remained. Take also Alexander’s mistake in not naming an heir to his empire, so his possessions were distributed among the tribes and they were gone with the wing. There is also the attack by the Crusader Arnat of the convoy of Muslim pilgrims, which included the sister of Salah al-Din al-Ayyubi. The result was the battle of Hattin, which was the beginning of the end for the Crusaders. Breaking the rules is another factor, like in the case of Henry VIII when he asked for a divorce, so northern and western Europe adopted the Protestant doctrine, which is against the authority of the Pope of the Vatican.
The aforementioned examples surely do offer a sigh of relief on the situation in Ukraine. An unintentional mistake can alone ignite a war whose end only God knows. Ukraine will be the hot spot over which elephants fight to break the weeds. This is all because of the inexperience of the Ukrainian president and the West’s attempt to antagonize Russia, thinking that Moscow would stand still. They forgot to recall the betrayal and humiliation that Putin felt on the night of the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
