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Decline has never been a comfortable conversation for any great power, not alone a super power, but for the "city on the hill", it's a particularly uncomfortable topic. A sense of exceptionalism, at the heart of the American identity, often keeps such thinking at bay.
While such discussion often is cyclical and over-hyped, an important truth still exists: the declining economic position of the US due to its fiscal mismanagement and the rise of other powers, dilutes America's indispensable role in the world. For the Middle East, the combination of poor American policies for decades and declining American resources has made the region ripe for a post-American world.
The Arab Spring, despite representing a significant and possibly progressive moment for the Middle East, marked the end of the stability that ensured the security of America's core interests for decades. As noted last week, Israel has experienced a similar moment, but has much less to look forward to.
America now confronts a Middle East where its security challenges remain- Iran's increasing assertiveness in the Gulf and its nuclear weapons program, instability in Iraq, a tenuous Lebanon, state failure in Yemen, and a dead peace process, but without the added benefit of its stalwart allies such as Hosni Mubarak of Egypt.
In spite of what Obama may say in his speeches welcoming the Spring, any observer of Middle East politics cannot ignore that America stands in the short-term to loose the most if it does not act and adjust it's policies in the region.
But, for the moment, Obama's leadership has been a lot of talk, but very little substantive and strategic thinking. It's one thing to welcome the changes, it's another thing to build a foreign policy that ensures America's interests.
Obama fails to see that America's interests run against the currant of this new Middle East, and that the new Middle East is no longer as welcoming of America’s old role and policies. [inset_left]America must confront and rethink its own decade long interests in the region if it seeks to continue to be relevant in the coming years. [/inset_left]
One pivotal issue where Obama could gain goodwill in this new atmosphere is the deadlocked peace process but with Obama's speech on Wednesday, election politics prevailed over sound strategic thinking. The PLO’s pushing forward without the US, and engaging new partners, notably in Europe, is illustrative of America's potential lost role in the Middle East in the future.
If Obama does not act at this hour, his presidency’s legacy may be instead of transforming America’s relationship with the region, at a moment of crisis, he failed to build a new relationship, and as a result, America’s lost its position in the region.
