Michael Kaplan and Ellen Kaplan
Penguin Group 2006
Everything is subject to testing including the intangible. Michael and Ellen Kaplan argue that probability is a tool by which "Fortune Favors the Bold" and a way through which randomness can be overcome. Our daily lives are overwhelmed with endless possibilities, and "Chances Are" provides far more than just observations on this matter. This is a book that links the work of many thinkers together delivering a cohesive outlook on probability.
"Chances Are" is original in its ability to portray the field of statistics its due importance in a modern and intriguing fashion. Supported by many algorithms, mathematical formulas and statistical charts, the book demonstrates how probability plays an important role in people's daily lives. Probability has evolved from being a gaming method where imposters and tricksters thrived, to a science based on numeric values and calculations. The book shows the beginning of probability as a simple dice toss, and further digresses into how different thinkers built on it reaching ample ways to calculate the odds of something happening or not.
One of the book's aims is to demonstrate how the use of statistics and probability in many fields can produce optimum results. The book does this by a chronological development of the field itself, in a well written and at many times, humorous manner. The book is not a text book that is meant to teach the field of statistics, but more so an enjoyable read, that sheds light in areas where probability plays a significant role. The book also uses exemplification in many of its chapters, to both captivate the reader and demonstrate the pragmatic value of probability. Moreover, the book adds a philosophical edge to its academic value by posing challenging questions, that makes one's mind wonder and concurrently proves that statics and probablility are able to provide us with answers.
The Book starts by discovering the different possibilities that could take place, even the far fetched ones. According to Michael and Ellen Kaplan, even faith is subject to probability testing, for the mathematical demonstrations and the uncertainty of belief can intersect. Hence, thinkers such as Pascal, Aristotle and Cardano, embarked on a continuous search of ultimate truths even in questions that do not have logical explanations. Many mathematical formulas are assembled in the book building up to more accurate testing of probabilities. Bayes' theorem for example (including the bell curve) uses experience as means of measuring confidence in the probability of a single event very efficiently.
Of the many examples that the book offers, a few stood out. For example, the book shows how the bell curve can be used in presenting legal arguments during court trials throughout one of its chapters. Accordingly, conclusions were reached on the conduct of lawyers and Judges. Furthermore, the book very interestingly portrays how probability can be used to decrease death percentages and how contestants can optimize their chances in winning particular games.
On one hand, Michael and Ellen Kaplan seem to have achieved a balance between the mathematical material their book is based on and a descriptive narrative, keeping the reader attentive at all times. However, the book could be criticized for including too much mathematical and statistical material that would not only disinterest a large sector of readers, but bee to difficult to grasp by many others. The book also occasionally tends to use over sophisticated descriptions that either don't fit the literary context or cause confusion amidst the statistical build up.
The book eventually reiterates that despite the many formulas that have been constructed to calculate possibilities and chances, none is fool proof and uncertainty remains as an undeniable fact. Since, "Probability shows that there are infinite degrees of belief between the impossible and the certain", one should always pursue means by which the most accurate answers can be reached. This accordingly should take place by reasoning and examining this reasoning, not to reach certainty, but to achieve forms of "uncertainty that are better than others".
