How the Middle East Sees a Democratic Win 

As the world watch the US presidential elections closely, it is not a surprise that the sharp internal divisions in America are also reflected in sharp divisions within the Middle East. It seems – according to many reports and analysis in both Washington and the Middle East – that Iran and its allies are hoping for a Biden victory, mainly to get rid of the sanctions and the repercussions of the Trump maximum pressure campaign on the Iranian regime, which have resulted in dire economic and political crises for the regime and its regional proxies. 

On the other hand, many of those in the other camp – that is the anti-Iranian regime camp – find themselves worried about a Democratic administration, mainly because the last one (Obama’s administration) didn’t really take their interests and concerns into consideration. Those who abide by this logic fear that a Biden administration is only going to be a third Obama administration, especially that Biden was Obama’s Vice President (2009-2017). 

These fears increased as Biden’s campaign didn’t really address a clear strategy regarding the Middle East, beyond reassuring the Americans that he will go back to another nuclear deal with Iran. There are worries that Biden will re-engage with Iran, and with political Islam in general, allowing certain factions to be part of the political process, while thwarting the results and successes of the maximum pressure campaign applied by Trump’s administration in the past few years. 

The main concerns is that how would all this reflect on the region, and on the very critical balance that Iran and others are trying to thwart. Is Biden going to empower Iran? Will he remove sanctions and help the Iranian regime recover from its financial crisis? How will all this affect Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies in the region? How will Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon look like? Will the Muslim Brothers thrive under a Biden administration? All these are questions that many in the region are asking, and they deserve some answers. 

The answers should come from the democrats, mainly the Biden campaign or administration. However, there are some signs that might soothe some of these fears and concerns, especially when it comes to the differences between Biden and Obama, their campaign, and the different circumstances that surround their policies and priorities. 

First, Joe Biden is not Barrack Obama. It is true that he was his VP for many years and responsible for much of his policies, but Biden – as President of the US – sees the world nowadays differently, mainly because circumstances and priorities have shifted, but also because Biden’s outlook to the region has been different. 

For example, Obama’s relation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been clearly full of tension and antagonism, and Obama’s outlook towards Israel in general was very different from other Democratic presidents and officials. However, Biden has been very clear on this issue. He considers Israel’s security as one of his priorities and many in Israel are reassured about a Biden administration policy on Israel.

Before Trump – that is twenty years ago - Biden had acknowledged Jerusalem as a capital of Israel, supported a 1995 bill by congress to move the US embassy to Jerusalem in four years, and he said repeatedly during his presidential campaign that he will not return the embassy to Tel Aviv. He will only reopen a consulate in East Jerusalem in order to reconnect with Palestinian leadership. This has reassured many Israeli military and political officials. 
On Iran, despite the fact that Biden stated many times that he will go back to a nuclear deal with Iran, the circumstances have changed since 2015. 
First, Obama’s main legacy and priority when it came to foreign policy was the Iran deal. He wanted to leave his presidency with an achievement that the world can see and associate with him, and he had made many compromises in the region, and alienated many allies, in order to reach this deal. Biden – on the other hand – will probably have different priorities. Before Iran, Biden wants to fight Covid-19 in the US, recover the economy, while he focuses on China and Russia as his foreign policy priorities. In addition, he wants to restore his the US relations with Europe. 

That would make the Iran deal less of a priority, and he will not immediately move to negotiations with Iran, or even lifting sanctions. This is going to take time. In an opinion piece he wrote to the CNN in September, Biden said that he “will continue to push back against Iran's destabilizing activities, which threaten our friends and partners in the region. Drawing on the record-setting US-Israel security assistance agreement signed when I was Vice President, America will also work closely with Israel to ensure it can defend itself against Iran and its proxies. We will continue to use targeted sanctions against Iran's human rights abuses, its support for terrorism and ballistic missile program.”

As for political Islam in general, and the possibility of reengaging Islamic parties in the political process, it is important to note that things have also changed on this level. European countries – last but probably not least France – have suffered greatly from political Islam in the last four years. If Biden really wants to restore the US relations with Europe, he will need to consider this factor and maybe prioritize Europe’s concerns over a certain trend within the Democratic Party that encourages a reengagement with political Islam. 

Second, Biden will not be in a hurry as Obama was when he negotiated and signed the deal with the Iranian regime. As this was his priority and legacy, Obama was in a rush and was forced to make compromises as the Iranian regime played on the factor of time, which Obama didn’t have, as he was in his second term. On the other hand, the Iranian regime was not in a hurry as its economy and military might looked much better than today. They didn’t feel that they had to rush into compromises. They were able to apply their strategic patience cunningly and unwearyingly. 

Biden – on the other hand – is just starting his first term, with so much time on his hand to think and strategize. Not only is an Iran deal not going to be his legacy, he has time to make it right, without alienating the US allies in the Middle East. However, the Iranian regime and its regional proxies are in real hurry this time. The financial crisis that has recently hit them is unprecedented, and has affected their military and political operations in many countries in the region. Even their favorite child – Hezbollah – had to shift its budget repeatedly and stop most of its social services in Lebanon and Syria. 
Accordingly, it is expected that Iran will not be able to apply its strategic patience and will have to make the compromises this time. But a Biden administration will have to play it right, and not give in too easily just for the sake of proving that his administration is the opposite of Trump’s administration. On the contrary, if Biden wins, he should build on the achievements of Trump’s maximum pressure campaign and use them to get the Iranian regime to make compromises. 

This might lead to a deal that could reflect better on the region than the one made by the Obama administration, mainly on Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and would actually ease tensions rather than fuel divisions.